Analysing history, one can notice that a certain patterns keeps repeating themselves over and over again in the same sequence over the course of time. A while ago I wrote about lifecycle of countries, how they are born, grown, reach peak, then grow stagnant and stale on top, then decline and finally die over the course of time that is approximately 9 to 10 longer than human life.
This time around I will write about different, but related cycle, that I dubbed Winner, Loser, Scapegoat. First stage, the Winner, is where someone one way or another discovers a certain winning formula and successfully applies it to achieve a lot. Second Stage, the Loser, is where successor or successors, confident in effectiveness of the formula, continue to apply it until they literary lose everything. Followed by, the Scapegoat, where at the bottom of the barrel someone is put in charge of the unfixable mess only to become a scapegoat for its ultimate failure.
To being with a history of France. Its easier to understand because here each stage is represented by exactly one monarch. They are in this order Louis XIV, Louis XV and Louis XVI, even numbered sequentially.
Louis XIV the Builder
Nowadays Louis XIV, the Sun King, is mostly remembered for two things, building a luxurious Versailles Palace and saying "etat, c'est moi" which means "I am the state". He is symbol of autocratic absolutist rule, monarchial excess, lucury and priviledge. Looking at him now its easy to think that royal life is easy and you will be very lucky to be born one. That is misleading however and even downright incorrect if you look at his life closer.
Louis XIV reign begun when he still was a child. At the time France was literary tearing itself apart in a seamlessly never-ending civil war over religion and other things. However he managed to turn things around.
Historians write a lot about absolutism or efforts of Cardinals Richelieu and Mazarin as well as his mother Anne of Austria, even though French prosperity not only continued but only grew in even after they were gone. Historians however fail to notice the real source of Louis XIV success and power, money, that was the real foundation for his absolutist rule. Read my separate article about it.
Louis XIV and his associates and advisers build a system that turned France from unmitigated dumpster fire into a pre-eminent power in Europe, similar to what USA is today. Foundations to this system were money that came from two main sources, Medici Bank controlled by famous Medici family of Tuscan Grand Dukes, who first became bankers before they they became rulers of first Florentine Republic and later transformed it into a Grand Duchy.
If you ever wonder, the Austrians, French major geopolitical rival also had wealthy bankers backing them. Bankers are the secret sauce of success.
However money by themselves is no guarantee of success as was later shown buy Louis XIV successor, Louis XV. Money has to be invested property to produce even more money. The biggest source of money back in the days were silver mines in Spanish New World, that made Spain a a wealthiest nation in Europe, something Louis XIV managed to usurp from them by the end of his reign. To get a share of that wealth Louis XIV invested heavily in piracy, yes piracy. French colony of Tortuga would provide pirates all across the Caribbean with a safe heaven to restock supplies, repair ships and hire crew all in exchange for a fraction of the wealth they plundered. Read more in my article about piracy. Some pirates, or corsairs to be precise, made big plundering Spanish, some failed but the biggest winner of it all was French Crown who organized the whole thing.
Then there was war. Louis XIV loved war and, just like famous Carolus Rex, personally led his troops in battle. Unlike Carolus Rex, Louis XIV is not known ingenious tactical exploits and victories against all odds. There is nothing to interest military historians in a crashing defeat of Bishopric of Strasbourg by combined force of Prussian and French armies.
However, what Louis XIV lacked in tactical genius he compensated with strategic provenness. His approach was simple, fight countries that has money and no army, brilliantly simple and supremely effective. Luckily for him Holy Roman Empire on French eastern borders had a few countries just like that. Holy Roman Emperor who lost a lot of authority due to Peace of Westphalia, was no longer willing to protect these little states and France took full advantage of that fact. Before Peace of Westphalia, during 30 Years War, France actually spent a lot of money to make sure Emperor loses the war. An investment they managed to recoup in the wars that followed.
Finally, to avoid wars dragging out and waste money, Louis XIV would use his money to hire proven professionals. During 30 Years War, French at various point supported Danes, Swedes, Prussians and Saxons against The Emperor. That war left France with a list of trusted contacts who knew how to fight and win. Swedes and Prussians together with Swiss mercenaries became the spearheads of French aggression. French alliance with them kept French domination over Europe.
Thanks to that Louis XIV managed to make war profitable and made money every time he went to war. At a pinnacle of his military career he went for the biggest jackpot of them all, the entire Spanish Crown, including their silver producing colonies no less. With some compromises here and there he managed to win it for his grandson and died just a couple of years later.
All of the above made Louis XIV very powerful but also fabulously wealthy, he used that wealth to build Palace of Versailles and many other things. He invited nobles to live with him in Versailles to keep an eye on them and make sure they do not rebel, solving the Fronde problem of his youth.
All in all at the end of Louis XIV reign France had it all, unlimited power, ridiculous amounts of wealth, fame, clot culture, powerful allies and best armies out there. It would be inconceivable to think that a successor to Louis XIV would somehow manage to lose it all and make France an even worse dumpster fire than it was before Louis XIV, yet Louis XV managed just that.
Louis XV, the Benefactor
Louis XV is known as Le Bien-Aime, the beloved. That is because it was his successor Louis XVI who had to face the consequence of his predecessor's years of misrule. To contemporaries and even some historians Louis XV was the beloved one.
To be fair contemporaries had all the reasons to love Louis XV. He not only lived the dream life in the world his predecessor created. He enjoyed the wealth and shared it and the lifestyle it provided with the court around him. It's under him that French court could really reap the rewards of the efforts of Louis XIV.
Among other things Louis indulged himself in romance with women, Madame de Pompadour (actual person even if such a name sound like a frivolous invention of a romance writer) was one of his extrametrical love interests, possibly a reason for his moniker 'beloved'. People both loved and hated him for that. Women loved him for his virility meanwhile men like Frederick the Great snidely quipped that his greyhounds are his Madame the Pompadour.
Louis XV lived life of excess and because of that historians like to negatively compare him to his predecessor, blaming it all on him. Such differences were superficial however, daily life of Louis XV maybe differed from that of his Louis XIV, but when it came to governance and important things Louis XV did just as Louis XIV did. Just like the Sun King, Louis XV had his own cardinals as chief ministers, who in turn placed capable people in charge of different affairs of the state. However, where Richelieu and Mazarin succeeded, Fleury did not. That raises the question why? Were mistakes made and who made them?
Mistakes were certainly made, particularly in form of alliance with Austria against Prussia. However the biggest issue was not in these mistakes. Louis XIV made mistakes too and recovered from them, why Louis XV could not do the same? The answer is the fact that reality around him has changed so much. Because of that doing all the same things his predecessor did, yielded Louis XV completely different result.
So, what did change? Actually, all of it, pretty much everything that build fortune for Louis XIV suddenly and rather abruptly ended for his successor due to no fault of his own. However, everyone, not just Louis XV, was too rich and indulgent in their enjoyment of the wealth to notice the problem until it was too late.
To begin with Golden Age of Piracy, through which Louis XIV made a lot of money to finance nearly all he was famous for, came to an end and it was entirely Louis XIV own doing. War of Spanish succession resulted in French Bourbons taking Spanish throne from their rival Habsburgs, a great success and pinnacle of Louis XIV great war efforts and at the same time foundation for all future ills that befell France in the coming 17th century.
When Habsburgs ruled Spain, France supported Tortuga corsairs in their plunder of Spanish Treasure fleet, because stealing from rivals was all good and no drawbacks. However, when a grandson of a French king took Spanish throne, that suddenly became a problem. Tortuga Piracy suddenly became stealing from relatives and potentially weakening their grip on Spanish crown. Habsburgs have not given up on regaining Spain one day so help new Bourbon Spanish King, his French grandfather closed corsair shop on Tortuga. Corsairs did not take well to this change at all. They moved to Bahamas and continued their plunder just as before, but this time without paying French crown any tax on what they plunder and now also targeting French own shipping. Several decades of joint naval effort was needed to finally put them down, that cost a lot of money and naval lives.
End of Golden Age of Piracy was a big financial loss for French Crown. It was also very ungrateful towards people who helped build all this French prosperity, as ungrateful as Putin's regime is towards businessmen of 90s who helped build Russia he now rules. However the worst thing was of course loss of revenue corsairs used to bring into treasury. However value of Spanish Crown outweigh these considerations in the eyes of French court. Back then they had other sources of revenue, like Medici money and financial expertise and war for wealthy Low Countries Provinces in Holy Roman Empire.
Out of these two sources, Medici dynasty died out in mid 18th century and even if cadet branch of bourbons inherited their Grand Duchy of Tuscany, by that time Grand Duchy was bankrupt and could no longer support France financially.
Finally, there was war, that used to pay. Here they fucked up eventually. It worked until it did not. Diplomatic revolution led to France having to fight an "army with a country" and no money instead of a country with money and no army. Not to mention France used to be allied to Prussians so they should have known better how good these solders are.
Nowadays in retrospect it is easy to say it was a mistake but back then it did not look so bad. On the other hand the alliance did outnumbered Prussians significantly, Prussians were good soldiers but it was always a secondary power and client state of France, how well it could fair against its former master? France was promised Austrian Netherlands (modern Belgium) in exchange for helping Austrians with Silesia, a financially and territorially sound deal. Overall it was not too far fetched to expect a fast victory, that somehow always slipped away further and further but somehow was always within striking distance to keep chasing it. Fate was playing tricks with France.
7 years of that could not have led to anything good and it did not, money was spent and nothing was gained as a result. They did not won, Austria did not regained Silesia so it refused to hand over Austrian Netherlands too. France wasted money, lost territories in India and Americas and gained nothing but debt.
As you can see, Louis XV was not as bad as they make him out to be, but luck was not on his side. All ingredients of success that dependent on him were still there, he did the same things his predecessor did, but results were not the same. Why? Because reality have changed and methods that worked in the past, stopped working in the new evolved conditions.
Louis XVI, The Scapegoat
By the time Louis XVI have taken over, things already looked grim. Half of original French Louisiana and lucrative Indian outposts were lost by his 'beloved' predecessor. France was loosing money. What did he do about it, the same thing The Sun King would have done, went to war. The result, like The Sun King, Louis XIV, Louis XVI won. Unlike the former however, he failed to capitalise on it due to sheer misfortune and that bankrupted his government, he ended up being guillotined during French Revolution.
Fate gave Louis XVI a chance that in certain regards looked surprisingly like the event that kickstarted whole French prosperity in the first place. 30 Years' War where French determined support for opponents of Holy Roman Emperor's opponents paid off in the end in the form of Peace of Westphalia. French ended up mediating that peace deal and it shaped it into something that ended up benefitting them immensely through weakened Holy Roman Empire that pave way for future French conquests in the east. Before Peace of Westphalia Alsace, Lorraine and a few other areas used to be part of HRE and in the years after they became French. Could a lucky break give Louis XVI a similar event where some other rebel will emerge out of vast holdings of some rival empire at French borders?
Such an event did indeed emerge and it was famous American Revolutionary War for independence from the UK. France went on full in, supporting the Americans until they won. Afterwards they invited both parties to Paris to sign the peace and even drafted a peace treaty that immensely benefitted themselves. To avoid too much deliberation or alteration on the terms they showed Americans draft of what they wanted them to sign only a day before the actual signing ceremony. One can say they did all they could to make it a success.
What happened next have shattered all their hopes and sealed their grim future. In a single day Americans managed to negotiate a better deal with British directly and next day signed it instead. Instead of regaining east Louisiana and extensive protectorate rights on native tribes, as French draft outlined, French got nothing. They spent money and effort helping out Americans but got nothing in return.
Louis XIV played it by the book, but somehow results were different. Some ingredients were missing. What went wrong?
Perhaps somehow Americans and/or the British and their mentality was different from Germans when it comes to deals? They were willing to talk with opponent directly. That particularly applied to the British, who instead of scorning the Americans as ungrateful and disloyal for rebelling against British rule, decided its better to listen to them and got a better deal as a result.
Possibly undue overtness of French own benefits set them off. France did not gain much explicitly in Peace of Westphalia, benefits came from sort of unforeseen circumstances as well as gains made by French allies. After loosing much of his former authority over princes of Holy Roman Empire, Austrian Emperors no longer saw them as maybe wayward, but parts of him country and no longer cared if some of them got nibbed by the French. In contrast French draft of Treaty of Paris was overtly beneficial to France, too overtly to not alert other signatories.
A Balance of Power principle, later documented in Congress of Vienna. A coalition effect (Rooting for underdog effect). Chinese may call it Curse of Heaven as this is more or less inversion of their Mandate of Heaven.
Back before Peace of Westphalia Holy Roman Empire was seen as the preeminent power in Europe militarily and diplomatically (financially it was Spain that was not so coincidentally ruled by Habsburgs just as HRE was). France was but a little state on the fringes of that Empire, surrounded by Habsburg holdings on all sides. Back before peace of Westphalia most of Europe feared power of Holy Roman Emperor and were willing to aid his opponents no matter who they were, to create balance of power and avoid hegemony or any single state and/or ruler. Since then, however France have usurped this status from HRE and now this Balance of Power Principle worked against them in favour of their weaker opponents.
Just sheer luck or lack of it in this case. No one in their sane mind could have predicted that negotiations to end American Revolutionary War will end up this way. Only looking at that in retrospect does this outcome seem natural, back then hardly anyone would have bet on United States lasting two decades as an independent state, much less becoming a global superpower, it is now. Back then people would only bet on whether it will be UK or France who will annex them in the end.
In view of the above, one should ask if it's really fair to blame Louis XVI for all the bad consequences such as French Revolution. Was not he but a helpless victim of the tides of history beyond his control who did all he could, but it was not enough to change the ultimate fate of France.
Fundamentally, even if he could foresee all the outcomes, what could he have done differently to avoid such a fate. Avoid helping Americans in their War for Independence? That would not have erased consequences of 7 Years War however or French decline that have already started. Ultimately decline would have still resulted in revolution, because no one wants to go with less. Years of prosperity under Louis XV gave French people standards of living that was simply impossible to maintain. There was no path to victory, only several alternative path towards the ultimate collapse.
An Ever-Repeating Pattern.
The above narrative, Story of Three Louis-es, is but a one example of this same pattern repeating itself over and over again. Take for example capitalism of 19th and 20th centuries, that increasingly face the same problems, France faced before the revolution.
In 19th century capitalism, was growing and booming like France under The Sun King, Louis XIV. All sorts of new factories were built, new cheaper and better commodities became available, it was growth all around that gradually build the world as we now know it, just like the Sun King build French prosperity together with his Palace of Versailles.
That was followed by the Golden Age, that includes both Gilded Age of 1920s with Art Deco skyscrapers, trains, jazz and many more, as well as post WWII prosperity with large cars and suburban homes. It was like Louis XV era.
Finally, it is no followed by a decline of Louis XVI where people in charge did all they could by the book created by the original capitalists of 19th century but fail to get the same results.
Collapse of USSR was capitalism own French Revolution and Wild 90s were an attempt to build a new system in a revolutionary chaos.
That was preceded by various attempts to somehow fix the system in 80s, just like Louis XVI ministers tried to somehow fix all of France's ills immediately prior to the revolution.
Currently we are somewhere close to the end of Bourbon Restoration, where attempt to put it all back how it was before French Revolution was abruptly ended by July Revolution.
Fundamentals between these two seamlessly unrelated eras are also similar. Just like Louis XIV made money with his wars and Tortuga corsairs, early capitalism actually created value, new goods and methods of productions were actually better. It was not just paper secondary economy that was booming but actual primary one. It was not just an improvement on paper, actual value was created and brought into the system.
The Golden Age was but an era of spending and enjoyment, with occasional pitfalls here and there. It was so good, no one could care less for some petty details like primary economy. People of Guilded Age partied like no tomorrow, just like courtiers of Louis XV. Strong believe that this system is so solid, nothing could ever take it down, was the dominant thought of both eras.
Finally late 20th century was like reign of Louis XIV doing all the right thing by the book but somehow getting different results. One might say Cola Wars was the same kind of death-kneel war for capitalism, like American War for Independence or 7 Years War was for French power. A lot of money was spent not on creating new and better value but merely on an attempt to steal this value from a competing corporation. A tug of war not dissimilar to struggle over lucrative lands of Silesia or equally lucrative American colonies. Nonetheless no matter how lucrative these lands are, they produce the finite number of resources and what one power have gained is something the other lost. In the same way struggle for equally finite cola market is not creating of new value but merely attempt by one megacorporation to steal from another what is essentially a finite market than can only produce finite revenue.
In contrast capitalism of 19th century created new markets by introducing new goods. Not dissimilar to how Tortuga corsairs brought new money into French economy. Fundamentally Spanish Treasure Fleets brought this value into Europe, French corsairs just redistributed it. However fundamentally value was coming from without.
However, all this money spent on Cola Wars and similar competition efforts for finite markers, had to be recouped somehow. Just like money spent on 7 Years War and American Revolutionary War. Thus a Financial Crisis of 2008 and several others of its kind, were the price we all paid for money wasted by the capitalists on their competition.
I am not endorsing socialism or the like, as fundamentally its but a opposite side of the same capitalist coin. However, a new socio-economic system for modern times is certainly long overdue.
As a General Principle
There are always 3 key stages, that are: the builder, the benefactor, the scapegoat. Alternatively, you may call them: growth, peak, fall or winner, loser, scapegoat as I originally wanted to title this article.
In astrology there are always three signs between cardinal points, marking solstices and equinoxes and dividing the circle into four equal sectors. Each sector consists of exactly 3 signs, the first of which is cardinal, followed by a fixed and finally a mutable one. This trio is not dissimilar to the pattern I outlined in my article. A cardinal sign creates a system, a fixed one flourishes through it and finally a mutable one presides over collapse and gives way for a transformation for a new system to emerge. Roles played the three Louis-es during French hegemony and yet again repeated in the capitalism era.
In astrology these principles repeated again and again over the same never-ending cycle. However, there are 12 signs in total, that means the same pattern repeats itself four times in a somewhat different manner, before it gets back to the same point where it all begun. In real life, era of French hegemony of three Louis-es was replaced with British hegemony and capitalism that went through the same 3 stages as French hegemony. And before French hegemony there was Spanish and Portuguese and Ottoman hegemony, that was different from French one. However, we can go all the way back towards previous British hegemony under Normans and Plantagenets, sometimes informally called Angevin Empire.
After something finally fails, we try something different. By the time we have tried four different things all repeating the same stages of growth, peak and fall, we long forgotten how it all begun and start anew with that thing. Why world works this way is everyone's guess. However, each system has its lifespan, after which it exhausts itself and demands change.
Perhaps that is due to the fact that people in charge, no matter who they are, grow increasingly more and more demanding and oppressive until eventually people have enough of their bullshit and unite to take them down. When people had enough of Ottoman's abuses and domination, they helped Russia, kicked them down a peg. Now that world is tired of Russian abuses and hegemony, it is now helping Ukraine kick down Russia. So, life goes in circles.
However, it's probably not true that nothing changes at all, and everything repeats at infinite. It's more of a spiral where each new turn of a cycle is on a higher floor than the previous one, a spiral of 4 sectors, each 3 stages long, just like four seasons, each 3 month long, is how world moves on towards its future.






