How to Solve Iran

 

Recently Americans finally started their intervention in Iran to end Ayatollahs dictatorship there. After initial success in eliminated key figures of the regime, things started and devolved into long range strikes exchange. After initial shock, regime got its act together, elected a new hardline leader and begun fighting back. By now it's pretty clear that Venezuelan scenario will not work here. 

Unlike Venezuela Iran can receive weapons shipments from Russia and China through Central Asian states like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan and continue fighting for a long time. This fact will make regime unwilling to surrender.

That does not mean that there is nothing the US can do. Far from it there are a few good solutions that can still achieve a lot.

To begin with the US has to threaten the regime that if they do not comply with US demands, it will set up a rival government for Iran. It will be their last chance to retain current governmental structures. Once the new government is in place, current officials will have to defect to this new government if they wish to have role in new Iran. The new country can be called Kingdom of Iran with Shah Pahlavi as constitutional monarch, or it can be State of Iran with someone else as provisional President.

At first such rival government can be in exile, but it will be much better if the US swiftly secure a foothold on Iranian territory itself, a coastal town like Bandar Abbas can serve as a temporary capital. The US can secure it quickly and protect from the current regime while new Iranian government builds its institutions and military. 

From there new government can grow by accepting defectors from current Iranian military and government. The very fact that new government does exist and has presence on Iranian soil will give potential defectors more confidence that change is real and it's not a trap by the current regime to weed out closet dissidents.

After finishing fleshing out new government, new Iran can go on the offensive and gradually take over the rest of the country, culminating in taking Tehran.

If taking Tehran will prove to be too difficult it will not be a problem either. After taking important areas like the coast and oil fields, majority of which are in the south and close to shore, the US and new Iran can just call it a day and agree to a permanent split of the county into north and south Iran. If new Iran will not manage to take Tehran, it can have its capital in Shiraz, somewhere closer to Gulf will make it more defensible from the old regime or its Russian and Chinese allies.

Even if old regime survives and retains Tehran, without oil or access to sea they will be effectively neutered. They will be too poor to support their proxies and without access to sea will have no means of delivering any equipment to them.

Initial survival of the regime will not mean, old regime will live on forever and ever. After some colling off discontent can swell again in the north and this time could topple the regime or dismantle it piece by piece. New Iran should declare that it will accept every province and town that wishes to defect from the northern government, providing it has land access to the new Iran, so that new Iran can send its troops there. Even if Ayatollahs regime will manage to hold to protesting provinces, Iranians can just defect in individual capacity, draining the north of most of its people.

This strategy for the new Iran will allow the US and Iranian opposition to create new Iran and gradually take the country. It provides solutions for every potential outcome and solves most of the problems with Iran.