Moldova

I will continue my Post Soviet Border Issues Series with Moldova.

Moldova is possibly the worst example of Soviet-era border rearrangement. In its current borders, the country is completely inviable. It is the poorest country in Europe and overly dependent on remittances from abroad. 

Ethnic minorities within country current borders prevent the government from controlling even whatever territory is still available for them.

History

That abysmal state of affairs was not the case in the past. Here is the map of 18th century Moldova.

When Moldova established itself as a Principality, it had nice and viable borders. Separated from Hungary by Carpathian Mountains and from Steppe nomads by Nistra (Dnistro) River, Moldova did not need to worry about security. Princes of Moldova ruled the little country on both banks of Pruth River from their capital Jassy and had much less to worry about, that their southern Romanian brothers in Wallachia.

That changed in the early 19th century when Russia came and annexed Bessarabia (east bank of Pruth River). Moldova was left with around 1/3 of its original territory. Eventually rump Moldova agreed to unite with Wallachia and form Romania.

Then after the Russian Revolution, the part of Moldova that was annexed by Russia, declared itself independent. That independence did not last as Romanians came and arranged for unification of this eastern Moldova with Romania as well. Both parts of Moldova were reunited as part of Romania.

However, then WWII happened, and USSR used this opportunity to demand Bessarabia back from Romania. Romania had little choice but to comply.

It was then when the USSR altered Moldova's borders to create the current mess, we are in.

USSR took away Bessarabia's access to the Black Sea but cutting off the coastal areas and giving them to Ukraine as Ismail Oblasts (nowadays part of the Odesa Oblast).

It also took away Bessarabia northern most area and turned it into Chernivtsi Oblast of Ukraine.

To 'compensate' Moldova, USSR gave it a sliver of land east of Nistra River with city of Tiraspol. Tiraspol was an important Russian military base. Tiraspol was not so much a compensation, so much a guard to watch that Moldova would not secede from the USSR again. To make matters worse USSR placed important power plants in Tiraspol to make Moldova as dependent on this city as they possibly could.

When USSR collapsed and Moldova seceded from the USSR, Tiraspol proclaimed itself independent from Moldova. Ever since Tiraspol based self-proclaimed Transnistria hosts Russian military bases and prevents Moldova from functioning as self-sustainable nation. It also prevents them from reintegrating with Romania like they did after Russian Revolution.

Map of all the partitions can be found here.

Solutions

Unification of Moldova with Romania will actually be a desirable outcome for the region. Sure, Romania has its issues, but they are nothing compared to what Moldova has to deal with.

That will allow people of Moldova to benefit from membership in European Union and be part of a functional self-sustainable nation, with whom their share a language and culture.

There were in such union during the interwar era, and it was a relatively successful period for them.

Borders

That leaves an issue of Transnistria. Theoretically Transnistria can be swapped back for the former Ismail Oblast of Ukraine. 

The area of former Ismail Oblast is heavily neglected by Ukraine due to its geographic isolation. Ethnically Ismail oblasts has mixed population with a lot of ethnic minorities, such as Bulgarians.

Transnistria is also geographically isolated from Moldova. Culturally and ethnically, it is a lot less Romanian than the areas west of Nistra. around 3/4 of Moldovan are ethnic Romanians, while only 1/3 of Transnistria is. Transnistria has equal number of ethnic Ukrainians in its borders which can make its integration into Ukraine easier.

Thus, I would recommend swapping Transnistria for part or all of the former Ismail Oblast. Such land swat will make both countries much more stable and governable and make quality of life in both areas much better.

In contrast I would suggest keeping Chernivtsi Oblast in Ukraine. It is mostly ethnically Ukrainian and would only destabilize Moldova further if added to it. Some minor land swaps in the area mostly in favor of Ukraine to allow it to build a hydro power plant will be beneficial as part of a broader land swap.

Such land swap will make things better for both independent Moldova as well as for reunited with Romania Moldova.

For Ukraine neither area is of great importance on their own. However, it will simplify the borders and will make guarding and patrolling them much easier. It will free up soldiers and borders guards for other duties.

I hope that politicians on both sides will agree with that.