How to Solve Ukraine War

 

I recently got good idea on how to solve Ukraine war situation.

They should do massive land swap.

Ukraine should give Russia Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. (Crimea and Donbass)

In exchange Russia should give Ukraine Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and Orel Oblasts.

That kind of exchange is fair territory wise and will make both countries more stable.

For Russia it will work because it will get all the regions it covets, in exchange for relatively insignificant from Moscow's point of view areas.

For Ukraine it will work because it will replace problematic regions with much more easily manageable ones as well as potentially much more profitable.

Why Crimea and Donbass are better off in Russia.

Both Crimea and Donbass are too heavily pro-Russian and their presence in the Ukrainian state makes it unstable as there areas heavily lean towards Russia and sabotage pro-western policy that the rest of the country favours.

Most of these areas are heavily populated pushing country overall population balance heavily east. Because of their high population they play disproportionally large role in the Ukrainian politics.

Finally, both Crimea and Donbass are economically unsustainable:

Crimea was a resort town in Soviet times, nowadays it is not so profitable or popular. Only people nostalgic for Soviet times would want to visit it. There are not enough of such nostalgic people to pay for the maintenance of the peninsula.

Sevastopol is a city built around Russian naval base. Both its identity and economy revolve entirely around this fact. Thus, it is hard to find any place in Ukraine for this town.

Donbass mining towns used to be profitable when coal was still mined in shafts underground. Nowadays open-pit mining made shaft mining too costly and uneconomic. Because of that coal mining Donbas struggles economically and is a heavy drain on Ukraine's budget. People of the region currently making money by working in construction in Russia.

Finally in Donbass most of the town are located very close to Russian border and probably heavily dependent on various infrastructure on the other side of the border.

Why Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and Orel are better replacement for Ukraine

The above mentioned four oblasts have plenty of land and not so heavy population.

Small population figures will make their integration into Ukraine easier.

The four oblasts' economies are diverse with predominance of the agriculture over other industries. That will make them a better fit with the rest of the Ukraine's economy compared to Crimea and Donbass.

Large land area will allow to further develop agriculture there and potentially unlock more profits. At the very least they will be less of a drain on the budget than Crimea and Donbass.

Belgorod itself is very close to Ukrainian border. The rest of the towns are somewhat close to each other and rather isolated from the rest of Russia. That will make their integration with Ukraine rather painless and smooth.

Finally, some towns in Bryansk Oblast, such as Starodub used to be part of Ukrainian State (Hetmanate created by Bohdan Khmelnitsky) in 17th centaury. Their transfer to Ukraine will make for a historic justice.

The four oblasts together with Kharkiv Oblast can even be organised into a Greater Slobozhanshina economic region.

Why is it good for Ukraine

Land swap will make country much more stable internally as most pro-Russian areas of the county will be transferred away into Russia and they will be replaced with potentially pro-Ukrainian areas. The four oblasts might find being part of Ukraine much better for them than being part of Russia and will not be a pro-Russian nuisance like Crimea and Donbass.

There will be much greater chance of lasting peace as Russia will gain many of its claims and objectives in Ukraine. Russia will likely not care much for 4 oblasts to bother taking them back. That will make 4 oblasts even less keen in trying to get back to Russia.

4 oblasts much less of a drain on a budget than Crimea and Donbass. Ukraine is a poor country so economically beneficial land swap should benefit the county overall and make Ukraine overall much more prosperous.

Why it is good for Russia

Surely Russia already controls many of the areas in question however far not all of it. Even that might change if Ukrainian counter-offensive succeeds. Continued war is a heavy drain on Russia's resources and can put country's stability in question. Ukraine has support of the West and will get more money and weapons in the long run. In contrast no one of importance supports Russia.

On the other hand, formal agreement with Ukraine will allow Russia to lift sanctions. 4 oblasts are not too much of a price for Russia to pay.

On the other hand, internationally recognised annexation of Crimea and Donbass can give Putin and his regime even greater boost of popularity among Russian jingoists. Russia will be able to claim full victory in their 'liberation of Donbass' war. With their control of the media, they will be able to spin it into full victory and whatever else they want.

Summary

Territory swap between Russia and Ukraine will be able to solve many problems and will make life better for everyone involved.

Actual borders do not have to include the entirety of oblasts in question. They can be adjusted to be more workable.

Later I will write another article on how to fix Russia.