Monday, November 13, 2023

On Peace in Ukrainian War



Sure, idea of negotiating with Putin sounds outrages at this point. Putin cannot be trusted. Certainly, no real concessions should be given to him in any peace of ceasefire deal.

However, there is one reason Ukraine needs peace, or at least an illusion of peace at this moment. That is because private investors are wary of investing into a country at war. They feel that there is much more risk of losing money in a country at war that it is in a country at peace. To appease their sentiment Ukraine needs to produce an illusion of peace.

To that end it could be useful to negotiate with Russia and sign some sort of Cease Fire.

Of course, should they prove to be uncomfortable negotiations partners and demand some real concessions in exchange for peace, they should be ignored. Instead, a sort of unilateral declaration of end of war should be adopted.

Zelenski could simply announce that Ukrainian Military halted all Russian advances and effectively prevented Russian Military from advancing any further into Ukraine. Thus, Ukraine won its freedom and independence and obtained de-facto peace. That can be supplemented with a map of safe for business maps, that will showcase areas far from reach of Russian weapons. Insurance can be used to cover occasional losses from high range Russian missiles.

This is statement is actually true. Aside from small and insignificant Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast as well as other small towns also in Donetsk Oblast, there were no any significant fighting anywhere else in Ukraine for over a year now. Thus, with exception of fully occupied Luhansk oblast, contested Donetsk oblast, Crimea as well as areas south of Dnipro River in Kherson and Zaporizhya Oblasts, everything else is safe for business and investment. 



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