Tuesday, April 23, 2024

De-Facto US - Chinese Border

If you look on conventional map of the world, you will not see a border between these two countries as they are far away from each other. However, in reality there is an informal sort of border, that divides Asia into Chinese and American spheres of influence. 

Geo-politics in Asia are still dominated by Cold War Era military conflict between US and China. Nowadays the US and China try to trade and work together, but old battle lines from previous wars still remain. 


First Chinese American War 1950 - 1953

The Korean War ended up determining the borders between Chinese and American spheres of influence. Both sides wanted to take it all. 

Back in 1950s Kim Il Sung invaded, intending to push Americans out into the sea and unite Korea under his rule. Americans did not expect that, so they temporarily retreated to Busan but then reinforced they numbers and pushed all the way to Yalu River, intending to end Kim Il Sung rule for good and unite Korea under Seoul government. Americans reached Yalu River temporarily, reducing Kim Il Sung control to some pockets of resistance in mountains. Then China interfered on Kim Il Sung side with their 1 million volunteers. China too intended to push Americans out of Korea and Asia, they temporarily took Seoul but were eventually kicked out of there by the US. 

Eventually conflict reached stalemate on where is now Korean DMZ. China could not push any further south against the US resistance and the US could not push any further north against Chinese resistance. Eventually they agreed on cease-fire as further fighting was futile.


This DMZ serves as de facto border between the US and China. Somewhat recently after the North Korean rocket tests, the US probed on China over the North Korea issue. The US wanted to know if China will interfere on North Korean side, if the US invades North Korea to put an end to Nuclear Tests. The Chinese response vaguely confirmed that they will protect Kim's regime with military force.


How that Affects Modern World

The Korean DMZ is still a border between China and America, or in a broader sense, between American and Chinese worlds. 

After all each side have a number of other countries and people, plugged into their system. Each side has their own version of Korea for example. Chinese one is starving dystopian state that builds nuclear weapons. American one is prosperous market economy that builds Galaxy Smartphones instead.

That is why DMZ is still much more heavily fortified compared to other international borders, dividing Korea into Chinese and American halves.


To much of the Chinese annoyance, American side also has an American China, commonly known as Taiwan. Chinese probing over the Taiwan issues also showed that the US will defend it militarily, should China try to invade Taiwan. So as much as China wants to take Taiwan, it cannot. The geography of Taiwan favors America, giving China no chance of military victory. Because of that China occasionally flies its jets around Taiwan, unable to do anything about it.


In contrast in Indochina (Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos) geography instead favored China. That allowed them to wage a successful war to push Americans out of Indochina and abolishing American Viet Nam together with Amercian Cambodia and Laos. The famous Viet Nam war would have lasted as long as American invasion into Grenada in 1984, if China and USSR were not fighting on the side of North Vietnamese government of Ho Chi Minh. After more than decade of trying to defend American Vietnam, the US withdrawn and let China had it. Now there is only one Chinese Viet Nam.


The southern border likely goes around Thailand. 

That leaves Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar in Chinese camp. Dictatorship of Hun Sen and PPC in Cambodia does suggest that its under China. Pro American Sam Rainsy party is suppressed there. Viet Nam and Laos are one party dictatorships officially, so there is no any doubt here. Finally, Myanmar with its military government is also a likely part of Chinese world.

Chinese tried to flip Thailand to its side with Taksim Shinawatra party projects, but Thai military would remove him from power to avoid becoming Bejing puppet, just like its many northern neighbors.


Why Borders are Like That

One might want to talk about people's will and freedom to choose, but there are a number of examples in the area that show it's not what decides the outcome. For example, in Myanmar people protest military rule to no effect. In Thailand Taksim is banned from politics, yet comebacks by stealth with his left-wing populism. No one in their sane mind would even consider that people of North Korea would choose Kim Jong Un over the South Korean politics and lifestyle. Yet it's the reality for people in these countries.

The reason for that are differences in how American style and Chinese style militaries operate. 

American military strength lies in Air Force and Navy. Thus, Americans are strong on sea and on flatlands, in the desert or open, forest less mountains. Such areas allow Airforce to easily and effectively target every military unit on the ground and eliminate them.  Areas that fit this description are either liberal democracies or otherwise pro-American.

On the other hand, China is strong in heavily forested or swampy areas. Airforce or other military equipment is not effective there. Because of that military outcomes boil down to number of soldiers on each side. Here China has advantage over the US simply because its population is higher than that of the America.

That is why Korea DMZ lies where it is. South of that line are flatlands surrounded by sea, where the US Air Force can obliterate everything. China does not date step there. 

On the other hand, north lies mountains covered in forests. Tanks cannot go up the mountain, planes and helicopter pilots cannot see the enemy positions under the leaves and branches of the trees. Thus, infantry has to do battle, but that means casualties and unlimitedly the one who can muster more infantrymen under their command.

Other areas in Chinese world all share this common characteristic. Thick Jungle of Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia or Myanmar are areas where American might cannot penetrate. The US struggled to fix that in Viet Nam war, destroying Jungle with Agent Orange to create visibility for Air Force, but to no effect.

This geographic reality combined with technological ability determines the reality of the current world. Dividing it into Chinese and American sides. 

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