Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Why Real Objective of Russian War in Ukraine is to Take Sloviansk

Russian war in Ukraine already in its 3rd year. After some big push early on, followed by a pushback, the war settled into WWI style Sietz Krieg. Russia keeps throwing more and more infantry into the meat grinder for miniscule gains. After Russia left the west bank of Dnipro and Ukraine recaptured Kharkiv oblast in late 2022, the only two small towns in Donetsk oblasts have changed hands. 

Despite that Russia persists. That raises question why. To answer that I first give you another question: why Russia only attacks in Donetsk oblast and not in other areas. The answer to that is that Russia wants to take small town of Sloviansk in that oblast.

At first glance it sounds like an absurd idea. Sloviansk is small town of no particular strategic or economic value. Wasting so much manpower over it seems pointless. However Russian objectives in this war are not economic or even strategic. The town has propaganda value for Putin, that is why they want to take it.

Remember how Russians keep talking about Nazis in Ukraine. Putin wants this "special military operation" as he calls it to look this way in the eyes of Russian public. To that end he needs to capture a pro-Russian show town full of pro-Russian residents, that fits the propaganda narrative and can play the role of happy "liberated" residents on Russian TV. That will help validate Putin's claims that they are liberating people from oppressive Nazi regime or something. Residents of Mariupol and other places Russia already took are not happy because Russia has destroyed Azovstal where many of Mariupol residents used to work as well as other stuff. 

Sloviansk is peculiarly pro-Russian town in that area. During the first Donbas war in 2014 Igor Girkin held town for several month and used it as his headquarters. Later in 2014 actions of Ukrainian military forced Girkin to retreat. Because of that Russia has good idea of what the town is like. To top that fact, they can easily spin the fact that Ukraine had to re-take it in 2014 as Ukrainian occupation.

To make sure Sloviansk will work as show town Russia promised Sloviansk residents to splurge a lot of money on their town in order for them to look forward towards Russian "liberation". After Russia takes their town, they would play role of happy liberated citizens on Russian TV for Putin's propaganda. For 8 years prior to war Dmitri Kiselev kept telling people in Russia how residents of Sloviansk are unduly oppressed by Ukrainian Nazi and how they wish for Russia to "liberate" them. Now they want to conclude their military operations by liberating this town and then celebrating it with all the usual attributes like happy residents greeting soldiers, Putin and other officials pushing speeches. Just like they did with Crimea.

However, Zelenski and Ukrainians could watch Drimtri Kiselev's channel, so they knew, or could figure out, about this plan. So, to spite Russia and Putin and deny him his triumph, they mined everything around Sloviansk in hundred miles radius and put other obstacles there. Two years on and Putin still grinds on this. it's kind of like Lliere tries to get to that Panda-ride in episode 5 only to always find Jashin-chan there.

Because of that Russia keeps grinding on Sloviansk. Without it, "liberation" of oppressed people will not be complete and Putin's propaganda narrative will suffer.

On the other hand, you cannot blame Zelenski and Ukraine either. They try to make lemonade out of lemons Putin throws at them instead of just play the villain for Putin's propaganda. 

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