In Russian psyche Belarus is Russia little brother whom Russia protects. In contrast Latvia is an ungrateful swine who now shits on a hero who saved them from genocide by Nazis. It's simple and convenient with these two. Russian government knows how to handle either of them and mostly happy with the role each of them play in post-Soviet reality and in keeping Putin in power.
What is a Ukraine then, someone who used to be like Belarus but now became someone like Latvia instead. This mind splitting question breaks usual stereotypes, people of Russia used to. They do not know what to think and how to treat Ukraine. They are as shocked as Obi Wan Kenobi at the end of Episode III could not believe that Anakin would go Sith and kill the Jedi kids.
How could Ukraine have betrayed them? Are they being controlled by Americans? Did Americans imported Nazis or brainwashed local population using some psychogenic Oranges or something? These questions sound like batshit insane conspiracy theory for pretty much any normal human being. However, Russians, who were fed stories about three brotherly nations during the Soviet times, having hard time reconcile reality of Ukraine with their distorted by Soviet propaganda image of it.
In reality nationalism and independent identity was always strong in Ukraine, most people clearly saw themselves as distinct from Muscovites (as they call Russians). They never liked Russia and did not saw themselves as part of Russian world or nation. Even if Ukrainian (and Belarusian for that matter) languages are closer to Polish than to Russian.
However Soviet propaganda managed to completely hide these facts from Russians. Now they are puzzled why Ukraine wants to join NATO, many do not believe it's a genuine will of Ukrainian people and instead prefer to think that someone drags Ukraine away from Russia against Ukraine's will.
That puts even Putin and Russian government in a very confusing position. Not doing anything will make people question his ability to protect Russia and its relatives and friends. Doing anything will attract sanctions and all sorts of problems.
To the extend Putin and his propagandists themselves made this situation even worse by exploiting Ukraine in their propaganda. Constant stories about Nazis in Ukraine terrorizing common people of Ukraine helped Putin to keep Russians distracted from various internal problems such as corruption.
However, that eventually came to bite him in the ass when Russian public started to think that Russia could not simply let situation in Ukraine be and has to "save" Ukraine from these Nazis.
Because of that Putin faces a difficult question of how to explain the public what happened to Ukraine is without destroying the house of cards and stereotypes that brainwashed them into supporting him in the first place.
For the lack of better ideas, he started special military operation to "save" Ukraine from Nazis, despite being fully aware that Nazis were invented by Russian TV and instead of them Russian military will have to fight Western trained and armed Ukrainian military.
Soldiers were not told that however, they were told civilians would welcome them and they will only have to fight out of control Neo-Nazi street thugs. Only after the invasion they had to somehow come to terms with the fact that Ukrainian military is fighting them and everything they were promised by the command failed to materialize.
Meanwhile public in Moscow still expects a Russian victory over those mythical Neo-Nazi thugs. Since they do not exist Putin can simply withdraw troops at any time and say mission accomplished and order is restored.
It will be almost Black Adder clever:
-We will fight Nazis in Ukraine
-But there are no Nazis in Ukraine
-Then we can just withdraw at any time and declare a victory. No one will be able to claim that we failed to defeat the Nazis since none are there to begin with.
However, that still leaves an issue of Ukraine's unique role in Russian psyche. If old Soviet are propaganda stories about three brotherly nations will remain intact, then Russian public might once again find themselves concerned with the fate of Ukraine and new Russian government will commit to another war to boost their ratings.
Poland has a similar legend, invented during Cold War era: three Slavic bothers, Lech, Czech and Rus were said to be progenitors of modern Slavic nations of Poland, Czechia and Russia. With that untrue legend USSR and Polish communists wanted to make Polish people more friendly towards their Russian "brothers". It had limited success in making Poland Russia friendly, but a lot of people ended up believing the story even if not being pro-Russian as a result of it.
In eastern version of this story the three brotherly nations are instead Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, their ties are mentioned and glorified by extensive Soviet propaganda. Legacy of this propaganda is partially responsible for the current war in Ukraine.
Solutions
So, what can be done to dispel this myth and protect the Ukraine from any further incursions from Russia? The most straightforward solution can be to simply stop mentioning it in propaganda. However public memory is finicky thing, and this myth will not disappear overnight.
Something cleverer would be to say that Galicians took control over the Ukraine and all Ukrainians have long fled to Russia and Russian occupied areas. That will eliminate any further desire to save Ukraine but will instead fuel irredentism to retake Ukraine back from Galicians.
A while back I suggested that a buffer state made out of some Russian and Ukrainian lands would be able to diffuse tensions between the two. That seem ever so unlikely now that war gone so far.
Russia can instead shift definitions and instead started to call Kuban area Ukraine, that way Kubanian Ukraine will be part of Russia, and its people would be brotherly. Many Ukrainian nationalists claim Kuban as part of Ukraine, so it is not too much of a stretch. Originally name Ukraine was only used for Slobozhanshina area that consist of modern Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts of Ukraine as well as Belgorod oblast of Russia. They can also unliterary rename Ukraine Galicia at least for use in Russia itself even if Ukraine and the world will not accept this change.
On its end Ukraine too can consider a name change. In my article about name of Ukraine I mentioned how Ukraine used to be called Rus before and how Russia stole that name. For better or for worse, names get stereotypes attached to them. Even if Ukraine is not named after being a borderland of Russia, it will not stop Russians from claiming it was and insisting that its Russia because of that. Change of name can lead towards change in perception of Ukraine's place and role in the world.
Ideally new name of Ukraine should sound as foreign in Russian language as possible. That way less people would think it's part of Russia and nationalists will have harder time claiming it's just a region of Russia.
As to what name Ukraine should take, I have some ideas. Ukraine can adopt its original name again either as Rus or Dniprovska Rus with a spelling different from Russian one. Alternatively, Ukraine can call simply call itself Dniprovska Republica or Podniprovska Republica. Ruthenia based on Rusyn minority in Zakarpattia oblast can also be considered, this name if fundamentally based on the same original Rus name. Kyiavia can be considered as well. Galicia often used by Russians themselves but can be considered as well.
Possibly Dniprovska Republica is the best of these, but possibly a better idea can exist.
Alternatively, Ukraine can go full Latvia and ban Russian language and issue non-citizen passports to Russophone population. As Diethard Reid mentioned in Code Geass "masses desire tears" so this cruel betrayal of Russian people feelings could be just what Putin needs for his propaganda. However, some confirmation that it will not result in even more military action is in order before this can be considered.
Also, people of Ukraine are much better integrated into society compared to Latvia as most able to speak both Russian and Ukrainian languages. In contrast in Latvia Russophone and Latvians do keep to themselves and rarely interact with the other group.
However actual situation on the ground does not matter for Propaganda. If Putin can turn it into another Latvia style Nazi bashing in front of TV, then he will likely be content and leave Ukraine alone.
No comments:
Post a Comment