Monday, March 3, 2025

Possible Explanation of Recent Trump Actions

 

World is currently shocked and appalled by how Donald Trump treats Zelenski and Ukraine. Some talk about treason and even global re-alignment where the US will side with dictators against freedom and democracy.

I however have another more interesting explanation of Trump actions. That is one aside from usual pandering to domestic audience. Many in Republican party do not like Ukraine or high spending. Cutting aid and attacking Zelenski will please this crowd. Both Trump and Zelenski have years of past TV experience. They could have agreed to that spat in advance, and they just played the script in front of cameras. Zelenski could have got something in exchange.


However, there is one more even more interesting explanation. In his book, Art of Deal, Trump claimed that he does deals not for money but for kicks and trills of it. Somewhat similar to protagonist of this show, Akagi. Perhaps he decided to play a high-stake political game against Putin.

Thus, Trump's recent actions are a swipe at Putin. Cutting aid to Ukraine might look like helping Putin however it can also be seen as reducing stakes. According to some analysis the US aid under Biden was not that significant, but it allowed Putin a veneer of an illusion that he fights against combined the combined Western effort to destroy Russia. With so many theoretical "opponents" at the same time Putin could claim he was doing pretty well for circumstances he is in. With no more aid from the US Putin will no longer have the same argument to play, he will have to face the fact he is losing to Ukraine alone, not Ukraine propped by American weapons.

Due to Putin's control of media in Russia it will not have impact inside the country, I already wrote about this problem in several of my other articles. Putin will still be able to claim America helps Ukraine even if it does not. So long as Putin controls the media, he can spin any fact he wants and put any events upside down. To take him down inside Russia, media monopoly has to be blocked.

However outside of Russia many other nations will start to re-evaluate the power and status, Russia has. They will see that Russia is much weaker than Putin claims it to be. At the same time, they will see that Ukraine is much stronger than people originally thought. Russian status will plunge.


Second is reason for these actions is to evaluate what kind of person Putin is psychologically. Repetition of the same will simply give us the same results. Doing something radical and unorthodox just to see Putin's reaction can give some insights on how to beat him. Typical Akagi's strategy. Trump possibly can pull off something like that as well.

In fact, Trump can even sign some peace deal with Russia, give them false impression they have won. Zelenski can always ignore these deals just like Putin's puppets in DNR and LNR used to ignore results of Normandy peace process.

These actions will pull Putin from predictable landscape he calculated his plans for into an unpredictable and chaotic field he is not familiar with. That could lead to mistakes that would cost him dearly. 


Putin's original plan for war in Ukraine works irrespectively if Russia wins militarily or war drags out indefinitely. Both of these outcomes are good for Putin. If that is the case only something unorthodox can somehow kick him off his feet and defeat him. Trump could possibly pull something like that.

Here is my take on geopolitical mahjong with human lives and principles at stake.

Nonetheless going against Putin's control of information is much more sure option. It has less risks and no drawbacks. It worked in original Cold War so it should work again.

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Possible Explanation of Recent Trump Actions

  World is currently shocked and appalled by how Donald Trump treats Zelenski and Ukraine. Some talk about treason and even global re-alignm...