Europe Should Explain Value of Ukraine to Putin

 

I recently found a new interesting angle to the war in Ukraine. An angle that can allow EU and Russia to reach peace and even mutual cooperation. 

In my article about Baltic States, I did mention how Russia and the West generally value them differently. For Russia Latvia is most important of three, followed by Estonia and Lithuania. For EU and the west, it's generally the other way around, Lithuania first, Estonia next and Latvia last.

When it comes to Ukraine and other post-Soviet states, there is similar picture. Russia and Russians generally do not value Ukraine that much. Russians generally see Ukrainians as greedy, selfish and parochial people without shred of honor. In contrast they value Belarussians much more, believing them to be loyal, respectful and good team players. In fact, whole Kremlin propaganda narrative that backs war in Ukraine revolves around the idea that Ukrainians were "too weak and stupid" to "prevent Nazis from taking over" and now Russia has to "save" them.

For EU it's clearly the other way around. Ukrainians are potential EU accession success story on the level of Poland. In contrast Belarus and its leader Lukashenka is all they detest and despise in a single country and person. Only threat of Russian retaliation prevents Poland and Lithuania from simply invading Belarus to overthrow Lukashenka by force.

Kremlin is not necessarily aware of value, EU places in Ukraine. EU response to an invasion make Kremlin think that response will be the same no matter what they invade. Thus, Kremlin choose to invade the country it personally values lest and holds grunges against, Ukraine.

In reality EU would be a lot less concerned if Kremlin instead invaded Belarus or Kazakhstan. EU has no real stakes or interests in Kazakhstan; thus, they likely limit response to verbal condemnation and possibly small token sanctions. While EU wants Belarus to embrace EU integration path, that option is simply impossible for as long as Lukashenka remains in power. In fact, Lukashenka is so detestable to Europeans, they might even welcome Russian invasion of Belarus if it will remove him from power.

Sure, from geo-political perspective it will make no sense for Russia to invade broadly pro-Russian and anti-western regimes. However, that would be most crucial factor only if geo-politics are the real reason for Russian war. 

Actual relationships between Russia and post-Soviet states are more nuanced. EU and West often think that it is Russia who forces its will onto Belarus and other weaker countries of post-Soviet space. The reality however that its local bureaucrats and police, who fear European level scrutiny of their actions and seek Russian protection from it. Lukashenka and average Belarussian bureaucrat and policeman needs Russia a lot more than Russia needs them.

Sure, Russian bureaucrats and police are sympathetic to "plight" of their colleagues in Belarus and Ukraine, but their own interests come first. They need some sort of war to keep domestic population distracted and at least apathetic for Putin's continued rule and bureaucrats continued plunder. However, that does not have to be a war in Ukraine. However, they also want continued access to their mansions on French riviera and such. Europe can get much in exchange for giving them these things back.

However, it is not that important who Kremlin actually fights. Back in early 2000s it were Chechens, then Georgians, finally they settled on Ukrainians. Putin's propaganda machine can come up with some reasons to fight Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan if EU can give them good enough reason to switch their focus there. EU has just that kind of reason, it just has to explain these reasons to Putin.

While that does sound cynical, but EU should make it clear that while they care what happens to Ukraine and they want no further fighting there, they do not care if Putin instead invades Kazakhstan and "saves Russians" there. Something like this likely have to be agreed behind closed doors. 

Yes, it's a betrayal of principles of rule of law world order. It brings back the spheres of influence concept Putin always wanted to implement. However Central Asian dictatorships do not practice any rule of law, so not much will be lost if Putin invades there. In contrast Ukraine is actually developing democracy that gravitates towards this rule of law and EU values. Thus, saving Ukraine from Putin at expense of Central Asians can be considered a prudent call. A realistic solution to complex problem.

Europe can strike a deal with Kremlin where it gets Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia for EU integration, as well as Armenia and Azerbaijan for future integration. In return Moscow gets free reign in Central Asia with wars without sanctions. 

That only leaves issue of Belarus, but possibly Kremlin will be willing to either, trade it away or partition it between democratic and autocratic side. In fact, Kremlin might be willing to actually see Poland and Lithuania invade Belarus to change the regime as it can use it in domestic propaganda. Of course, such agreements will have to be made behind closed doors.

This rather cynical pact can finally end Russian war in Ukraine and solve so called fundamental issues between the EU and Russia.