After Moldova became independent from USSR most people there thought it will be as temporary as last time. Eventually they will reunite with Romania like they did when they declared independence during the collapse of Russian Empire in 1918.
Despite expectations reunification did not happen. Gradually mood in Chisinau shifted towards maintaining independence. Moldova replaced shared with Romania anthem with uniquely own and at one point even renamed shared language into Moldovan, the latter was later reversed.
Idea of reunification never died however and ever since Romania have joined EU and NATO keeps gaining more and more ground. People on both sides of border want it, many politicians agree but more in theory than in practice. So far reunification seems as far as ever.
The biggest obstacle to unification is often considered to be Russia. Certainly, Russian national interests are against such a move, but Russia also is far away and currently has enough on its plate with war in Ukraine, Palace scandal and many other issues. Russia certainly will not be happy to see former Soviet republic to reunite with Romania, but will it stop it? Russia might as well limit itself to strongly worded condemnation and leave it at that even if could do something about it.
More so, even if Russia really wanted to stop it, right now there is nothing it can actually do. Ukraine stands in the way of any military action in the region. Russia cannot use its navy for a naval invasion and moving troops through Ukraine is clearly impossible. Russia simply cannot stop reunification.
Does that mean there is nothing more to fear and the path for unity is clear. Far from it.
One issue unionist often overlook is interests of local elites. They typically label people Voronin and Zinaida Greceanîi as merely Moscow puppets who do Kremlin bidding. That will be an oversimplification. Surely interests of these people are often converge with that of Kremin but they actually have independent and much more ulterior motives to pursue them.
Local Chisinau elites have but a simple ulterior motive to oppose reunification. Retaining their power and influence. In an independent Moldova they are members of parliament, ministers and other important officials. In reunified Romania they will be nobody with no jobs and no future. Bucharest has its own elites who will not want to make room for a Chisinau crowd.
Even if Bucharest will think of some arrangements, like places in Romanian major parties, that will still make this people dependent on good will of local elites, that may disappear eventually as children of Bucharest elites will grow up and some vacancies will be needed to give them a cozy jobs, who do you think will be purged first.
In fact, situation is worse for pro-Romanian parties than it is for pro-Russian ones. Pro-Russian politicians would be able to reinvent themselves as Russian minority interest party in Bucharest and have an iron vote to keep them in parliament, similar to what UDMR is. Pro-Romanian parties have no such opportunities as most people will likely desert them for Romanian parties.
Thus, as much as an ordinary Romanian walking streets of Chisinau and most other Moldovan cities wants to be reunited with his Romanian brothers. People who sit in cabinets of power in that very same capital has a different opinion.
Sure, Bucharest can blame Moscow for making it this complicated.
Yes, during USSR times CPSU deliberately cultivated these Sovietised and Russophone elites to be the ruling class of USSR. Yes, these people are now standing in the way of reforms and prosperity of the countries they ended up being placed by Soviet regime. They are the problem, but they will not just disappear because one says so. A clever solution is needed to actually get the out of the way.
If you look at it from their perspective, they too have no easy way out. They cannot go back to Russia as Russia has no place for them and consider them Moldovan. Moldovans on the other hand consider them Russians and want them out of their country. Thus, maintaining this weird balancing act is the only option they have. Appease local population to prevent uprising, keep relationships with both Russia and EU to keep themselves in power.
Is it hopeless then? Not really. There is a clever solution that can break the impasse.
The solution lies in a Liechtenstein. Liechtenstein is a microstate in Europe that is ruled by a sovereign prince. Technically it's just one of the leftover states from Holy Roman Empire times. That however does not explain why it survived when former HRE states were absorbed into either Germany or Austria. The reason for that is the fact that Liechtenstein is ruled by powerful and influential courtiers of Habsburg Austrian Emperors. Liechtenstein was left behind so that these people will retain their power and influence even if the state they used so serve no longer exist: Austrian monarchy was overthrown and it became a republic. Yet old Imperial Austrian court have not disappeared completely, it was left behind in tiny Liechtenstein.
Liechtenstein example can serve as a solution to Moldovan question. A tiny microstate can be created for Chisinau elites while the rest of the country can then be reunited with Romania. It can be Principality of Orhei, centered around that town, for example, or in some other place.
This will solve most of the Chisinau elite's problems. A small state like that will be a lot more stable than whole of Moldova. With a small population it is much easier to keep standards of living high enough and people content. Such small state will not be swayed by public opinions, pushing it towards EU or Romania. Being so small no major players like Russia or Romania will care to control it. That will make governing it much easier than governing in Chisinau.
Despite being small, a state can still enjoy full sovereignty and international recognition. This the elites will feel safe there. A deal with Romania and Ukraine to that end can ensure that all international legal formalities will be followed on, and state will enjoy no less rights and recognition as Liechtenstein. The new state can be legal successor of current Moldova.
A surprising Liechtenstein solution can solve the Moldova problems and allow Romanians on both sides of Prut River to finally be reunited in NATO and EU. Hopefully the people in charge will read my blog and implement this solution.
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