It was a resounding victory. So, resounding that the US immediately planned to deal with its other adversary in a similar fashion. At the end of February, it begun bombing Iran. However, after the initial success and killing of several key leaders, the Iran campaign stalled and by now global economy starting to feel the problem.
So, what went wrong? Why Iran continues to defy Americans when Venezuela folded near immediately?
To begin with an analysis of Venezuela. Venezuela is both typical Latin and typical American country. That is why American analysts and intelligence figured them right and devised the plan that worked.
Lefty causes are popular in Latin America and in Americas in general. In a typical Americas fashion Venezuela was flashy and visible about its leftism and opposition to the US. They invited Russians to Caracas, became friends with everyone who hated the US and supported various anti-American causes
Behind that flashy bravado however was a rather soft underbelly. They made no real preparations for an actual fight with the US. That allowed Americans to easily get them.
Typical for Americas Venezuela relies entirely on maritime shipping and has no alternative supply routes. After the US blocked their ports, it was only a matter of time before they would fold. Kidnapping of Maduro was just a grand finale of the battle that was already won when the US established a blockade.
In the end of the day "socialist" allies of Venezuela could do nothing but watch as the country easily falls to the US plans.
It's important to note however that it's not that Russia did not want to help Venezuela or did not care what happened to it. Russia would have wanted to help but it could not. Russia simply does not have the naval capacity to challenge the US blockade. As much as Russia wanted to, there was nothing it could do.
Simple geographic fact of existence of Atlantic Ocean prevents Russia from supplying Venezuela by rail, Russian preferred mode of shipping.
No land connection and weak navy makes it impossible for Russia to do anything about it.
Now we will look at Iran. Iran is not in Americas, and their mentality is quite different from those who live in the new world. Unlike say Venezuelans, Iranians are subtle and more concerned about security and self-preservation.
Immediately after the Revolution Iranian government have been planning for revolution prevention measures. IRGC, Basij and such are all products of such measures. So are atomic weapons program. Possibly only regional proxies are purely ambitions, but they too could be considered a defence measure, someone Iran can rely on in times of war.
This level of preparation is very different from Venezuela, that only talked big but hardly invested in any allies or proxy networks. Back in the days they used to have Evo Morales in Bolivia, but a simple election removed him from power and Bolivia was no longer on Venezuelan side. An Americas thing. Evo was a free ally for Chaves, he did not spend a dime acquiring him, but that also meant it was just as easy to lose him.
Iranians are not like that; they support proxy networks that are independent of elections. They finance these proxies and through that make them dependent on Iranian government. Regardless of whether Houthis, Hamas or Hizballah like Iran or not, they cannot just ditch them as without Iran they will have no money to continue their operations and even existence. Thus, they will not desert Ayatollahs regime in Tehran.
I am not saying all that to claim that Iran is somehow too tough to be defeated, far from it. However, difference in mentality and approach to life making a victory over Iranian regime a lot more complicated compared to how it was with Venezuela.
Now for a real trump card that actually keeps Iranians in this fight, Russia. I mentioned earlier that Russia could not help Venezuela even if it wanted to. In case of Iran Russia actually can help. Unlike Venezuela, a naval blockade will not stop Russia from aiding Iran as they can ship weapons overland.
One might look at the map and notice that Iran and Russia do not share the border. How can Russia still ship anything to Iran overland? The answer is through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
Kazakhstan is one of Russia's closest allies. Unlike Venezuela, they do not wear it on a sleeve for all to see, but when Russia needs something, they can readily get it from Kazakhs. Both countries are autocratic and have no freedom or press or free elections, making them both vary of American interventions for the purpose of spreading democracy or popular protests to that end.
Thus, shipping weapons using Kazakh freight rail is a no issue at all. Russian ministers could just call Kazakh minister of transport, and he will easily purge domestic freight schedule to make way for Russian arms shipments to Iran.
Its more or less the same with Turkmenistan as well. To being with Kazakh and Turkmen rail networks were originally built by USSR when the two were Soviet republics. All these rail links are still fully operational.
China is linked up by rail with all of them too.
Thus, despite the American naval blockade, Iranians get all the weapons and other supply they need to continue their fight by rail though Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. They are also able to use this network to ship its oil and gas to buyers such as China and keep revenue flowing.
However, there is one more final service Russia provides that keeps Iranian regime in the fight. That is an asylum guarantee.
Even before the war with the US was a thing, members of Iranian regime were concerned that a revolution may topple them, and they will have to flee the country. Unlike the Shah before them, they will not be able to settle in the US as unlike Shah they are hostile to Americans. They needed an alternative safe heaven and Russia have provided it.
A Russian safe heaven is not just something Iranians will only think as a last resort when Americans will be at the gate. That is how Venezuelans or people in Americas think. That is why this eluded the US analysts, when they made decision to start a war. That is why Iranian war dragged out for so long.
A guarantee of Russian asylum is what influences everyday policy decisions in Tehran. The regime cracked down on protesters because they knew they could always flee to Russia and be safe there even if they completely alienate their own population.
That very same guarantee is what keeps Iranian regime in the fight. Even if the US invades of bombs Iran into stone age, the regime members who led to that with their stubbornness will not have to suffer from any of that. They have Russia to accommodate them.
That very same guarantee gives Russia a leverage over the Iran too. Unlike Venezuelans, Iranian regime fears their own people and do not trust them to treat them well in the event of regime change. Thus, when choosing between safety of Moscow and mercy of their own people, they will pick Moscow. That allows Moscow to dictate policy in Tehran.
Russia benefits from high oil prices and more wars in general. For Russia it will be beneficial to trap the US in some never-ending quagmire war. Not only it will keep oil prices up and Russian revenues with them, but it will also distract the world from its own war in Ukraine. Not to mention to pull a fast one on the US.
Russia is bewildered by American role in the world and would like to make American wars as hard on the Washington DC as possible in order to deter them from starting another war to overthrow another Russia friendly tyrant somewhere in North Korea or Turkmenistan.
If the price of creating a trap for the US is complete destruction of Iran as a country, then it's a price Kremin is willing to pay. Kremlin loyal members of IRGC are certainly willing to deliver it. They will not suffer the consequences. Their families and children are already in Moscow, picking curtains for the mansions Russia already provided for them. When this all is over, leaders of IRGC will join their families in Moscow as the US, Shah and Iranian diaspora would be left with rebuilding Iran after the mess the old regime left behind.
Because of the above, Iranian regime have still not capitulated to the US demands and continues to resist. Certainly, some members of the regime, who did not get a cozy deal from Kremlin, would want to make a deal, but they are completely overruled by those who did.
Because it's mostly the IRGC leaders who made this deal, a peace in Iran is impossible until the entire organisation is destroyed. A more moderate members of Iranian regime are unable to make deal with the US also because IRGC threatens to kill them if they do. Finally, IRGC has their own structures and supplies and would likely be able to continue the fight even if a president or Shah in Tehran will make a deal. Russia may be able to supply them even if new Iranian government will outlaw them completely.
All of the above makes the Iranian war much more complicated compared to Venezuelan interventions. That does not mean that Iran cannot be won. A smart revised strategy will be able to make a difference needed to topple the IRGC grip on power.
Rail links from Iran to Turkmenistan, and possibly other countries, has to be destroyed. All IRGC bases have to be levelled with the ground too. All leaders of all IRGC and linked structures have to be purged, assassinated or otherwise removed. If possible, their families in Moscow too should be targeted. That will make them doubt they made a good deal with Kremlin. Possibly more.
Intelligence sources from NATO and other US friendly country should be consulted to confirm the details and make a more comprehensive list of targets.
These measures will finally allow the US to tip the scales and break the spine of the Iranian regime and destroy their ability to resist the US in future. Unlike Venezuela, they cannot be just decapitated, but the structures that keep them in the fight can be precisely identified and then surgically targeted to remove those who would rather destroy Iran than let the US win. The US should do just that.
Iranian situation is more complex than that of Venezuela, but it's not hopeless. The US has a path to victory and should use it to win this one for the free world and American glory.
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