On Cuban Question

I have never been a supporter of Cuban socialism or Castros. I think the island should democratise and actually become free in reality, not just in communist slogans. However, reading online comments on the matter, made me think that things are not as simple. Regardless of if communism will fall in Havana this time or Castros yet again manage to dodge the bullet, both of these outcomes will lead towards misery and privation, the only difference is who will suffer.

To understand why, we have to look at Cuban past. Under Fulgencio Batista rich flourished and indulged themselves to the maximum. Next to all that poor lived in slums and Cuban police kept them away from all the good stuff, repeating the same capitalist mantra about 'respecting property'. As much as an ideological purist would like to insist they had no right to just take that away, when Castros offered these poor all that shiny property, Batista zealously guarded them from, they of course accepted. Thus, revolution won in Cuba and rich who were too stingy and principled to share, lost it all.

However enough of the past, communism won in many places during 60s and 70s, but most of these have long since switched back, why not Cuba. It's not almost 40 years ago, yet Cuba alone somehow stays communist. Why do Castros continue to endure in Cuba, when elsewhere their ideological brethren long gone.

The reason for that is that anti-communist Cubans have not learned from their mistakes. As much as life under Castros is tough and far from ideal, majority does not want a return to how it was under Fulgencio Batista. Despite that Cuban emigrees in the US insist on the most hardline approach to the problem. They are not trying to win Cuban people to their side, promising anything. Far from it, they are not only blaming Castros, but also ordinary Cuban people for stealing their property. They want a revenge on both, Castros and those who supported them, this common Cubans.

From this stance people could assume the worst. Not only return to Batista levels of inequality, but also repercussions against ordinary people. Descendants will come to reclaim their property and businesses, refuse to employ locals, believing they are lazy and spoiled by years of socialism. Thus, Cuba will flourish but only select few will benefit from this prosperity. Most ordinary Cubans will starve and die on the streets as emigree will neither employ them, nor share their wealth with them. 

What do opponents of Castro do to alleviate these fears? Absolutely nothing. Far from it, due to their self-righteous stance, they only reinforce these fears. It's no wonder, people in Cuba still cling to Castros and the revolution, no matter how shitty things have become. Because Cuban emigrees could still make things much, much worse than that. Now there is just no food and electricity, but under new regime they will lose homes too, because these homes used to belong to someone before revolution and new old regime will kick out current inhabitants to return property to their 'rightful owners', descendants of Cuban immigrants, who were born in Miami and never set foot on the island. After that new old police can beat them up and then jail them, so they will lose their freedom too. And there still be no food or electricity, there will be for Cuban emigrees returning from Miami, but not for locals as that is socialism, light pole is all the electricity that will be left for them.

So, does it mean there is no way forward and Castros yet again managed to survive against all odds? It depends. If the US is willing to be flexible and offer Cubans a better life they would actually want, a solution may be found. I do not mean negotiating with Castros, as they may have Moscow connections and will advance Moscow interests instead of that of Cuban people. The us has to reach out to Cuban people. Sure, you cannot sit with them at the same table, but you can still make public announcements that will reach them in time.

However, a concrete solution is needed to safeguard against the return to Batista times. A mere promise will not suffice; it has to be a solution that cannot be just taken away by new government with or without a coup. What kind of framework could possibly achieve that is something diplomats will have to think of.

At the minimum, Cubans will need something to support them under new system. To that end social security, possibly a UBI is needed to make sure people will not go without under new system. It has to be properly indexed to make sure inflation will not make it worthless.

Furthermore, a question of property has to be addressed too, descendants of those from whom Castros confiscated properties will want them back. However, these properties are currently occupied by local Cubans who would not want to be deprived of their homes based on some old deeds.

A police and justice too have to be addressed somehow. Old hatred and bad blood between Cuban emigrees and locals might lead towards justice system being used to settle old scores and generally to hurt these bastards. Some institutional solutions are needed here as well, a cross-community jury or panel judges possibly.

On the other hand, if the US continues to hold 'lazy socialists' in contempt and promise to rid Cuba of these, not just of Castros, Cuban public will only cling to Castros. From there the US could only take the island by massacring most of its population. Afterwards there will be insurgencies on the island itself as well as refugees to the mainland US from that, this time socialist Cubans instead of capitalist ones.