How to Solve Transnistria Problem

Transnistria is a self-proclaimed unrecognised county that exists within internationally recognised borders of Moldova on left bank of Nistra River. Transnistria have long been a thorn in not only Moldova's side but also that of Ukraine and broader Europe. For Europe it's a source of illegal weapons and human trafficking, for Ukraine it is a military threat at Transnistria de-facto authorities are pro-Russian and there are Russian 'peacekeepers' in the area. For Moldova it's a separatist regime that controls significant parts of the country's territory and resources. All three would like to see Transnistrian problem solved but Tiraspol regime has Moscow's support and until recently no one could do anything about it.

However Russian war in Ukraine exposed Russia's weakness. Russia is already at war so it could no longer threaten war in retaliation for any action Chisinau may take in Transnistria. Right now, Transnistria is cut off from any Russian aid by Ukrainian defences. So, if the above-mentioned powers were to act on Transnistria now, there is nothing Moscow would be able to do about it. If anything, Russian war in Ukraine presents a golden opportunity to finally solve Transnistria problem once and for all.

At the same time, this is also a good opportunity to fix hideous post-Soviet borders and make frontiers much more logical and defendable. Ukraine can claim back left back of Nistra (Dnistro) that used to belong to them before USSR annexed Moldova and Moldova can reclaim some of the lands that was ceded to Ukraine as compensation. Border along Nistra River instead of an arbitrary line drawn by Soviet officials will benefit both countries as it will be much easier to control and patrol during peacetime or defend in case of war.

While it is likely, that Transnistrian de-facto authorities in Tiraspol would not just surrender without a fight, they have some troops of their own and would likely fight, but there is a way to play it smart and gradually phase them out. One can use a salami tactic of sorts. Instead of abolishing it in one go, one can shrink Transnistria gradually, rayon by rayon. 

Transnistrian capital is in the south of the separatist region so one can start shrinking it from the north. That way Transnistrian de-facto authorities can still retain their country and government, just with a somewhat reduced territory. They are outnumbered so it's likely that they lose in an armed confrontation. If they fight and lose, Ukraine and Moldova can occupy their entire territory and just put an end to their existence, thus good chances they would agree to withdraw from the north without a fight to keep south.

To begin with Moldova and Ukraine can agree to swap 1 for 1 or 2 for 2 rayons (old pre-reform rayons for Ukraine). These rayons have roughly equivalent population and territory so it will be seen as fair for both sides. There is also the fact that people in northern rayons of Transnistria are predominantly Ukrainian, while those who live in some Ukrainian border towns like Reni are Moldovans, so it will be fair to adjust the border to re-unite these people with countries they identify with. Camenca and Rybnitsa Rayons of Transnistria can be swapped for Reni and Tarutyne or old Bolhrad Rayons of Ukraine. Exact borders can be adjusted to suit local geographic realities.

After governments in Chisinau and Kyiv negotiated, agreed and ratified the territorial swap, Ukrainian side can present Transnistrian de-facto authorities with final document and request they withdraw their troops and officials from agreed upon territories or Ukraine will take them by force. It's important to make it clear where new frontiers will be and why. There are good chances are Tiraspol will comply with this new reality.

While that will not remove Transnistria completely it will reduce its territory and will make it easier to control the border and keep Transnistria in check. It will put Ukraine and Moldova in much better negotiating position than before the swap.

If Tiraspol will remain undeterred in its opposition to Chisinau authority, The initial swap can later be followed by a second one, where Dubasary and Grioriopol Rayons can further be swapped for something like Bolhrad and Izmail or whatever works best. Once again exact borders do not have follow rayon borders exactly, some adjustments to better reflect situation on the ground can and should be made.

After Transnistria is reduced to just its capital and surrounding areas, Moldova and Ukraine will be in much better negotiating position to solve this problem for good. From there Tiraspol authorities could be offered ether temporary Gagauzia like autonomy in Ukraine or Moldova. Alternatively, they could be offered a safe exit and exile.

Final solution can then be followed by final agreement on border between Ukraine and Moldova. Sure, Moldova will likely get back a lot less than what it had before WWII, but land Ukraine got is simply more valuable and Ukraine would not just swap it all back, all for all like before the war. Moldova needs these swaps a lot more than Ukraine does. 

However, it's very realistic for Moldova to be able to get direct access to sea, which will be a huge boost to it in practical terms. 

Moldova and Ukraine can then further agree to swap some of Moldova proper areas north of Balty for more land in the south. In fact, Moldova can even trade Belty itself, people there vote for pro-Russian parties, and many identify as either Ukrainians or Russians, as non-Moldovans. 

Ideally, we would want a border to follow Nistra River at least in the south. However, this plan is flexible so even if most ambitious targets could not be met, it will still be a meaningful improvement even in partial form.

Just like that, with clever salami tactic a long-standing Transnistria problem can be solved and borders between Ukraine and Moldova improved.

How Superannuation (Super) Works

A few people online claimed that millions in super are just a myth people use to bash boomers. To refute these claims and prove that millions in super are real I will now explain how super works and why even if you personally do not have any, millions in super are not a myth.

Overall superannuation is a simple system. After a person is hired for a full-time job, a super account is created for them in one of super funds. Afterwards every time they are paid salary a certain sum called 'super sacrifice' on a payslip is deposited into their super account. 

If you worked in formal full-time employment for a single employer all your life, and absolute majority of boomers did just that, it is very easy to accumulate millions of dollars in superannuation. The money will become available to spend only after the retirement but in some exceptional cases one can claim some of it early.

Now that we covered the most typical and simple case, I will outline possible complications. If at any time you switched employer, unless you get out of the way to transfer your super to new super fund, chances are your new employer created you a new super account and because of that your super is split between two different accounts likely with two different super funds. Altogether there still should be millions between two of these accounts, just more hassle and paperwork to collect it all. That is you will not have double amount, both of your accounts together will hold as much money as a single account of someone who worked for the same employer.

Of course, the often you switched jobs and employers, the fractured your super is, split between multiple super accounts all across the industry. So, if you went between couple of dozen employers, collecting all your super could easily turn into a sort of pirate treasure hunt or a detective story. A some long defunct pre dot com bubble company where you worked 30 years ago, would have super accounts in long defunct super fund, so it would be a challenge worthy of Sherlock Holmes to track down where your super ended up after all these acquisitions and mergers. And after all that you will also have to get out of your way to prove you actually worked there as records could be missing and such. Multiply that by all the places you worked and tracking super will easily become a full-time job in itself. To make matters worse you are not tracking 20 separate treasures but only a single one, split into multiple parts. For some jobs it will not even be worth it as if you only worked there a few month, you would have but a token amount of super in their particular superfund. Iron rule of super is the longer you worked in the same place the more super you will have, while every employer you had only adds more hassle to tracking all down. A clear loyalty insensitive here.

If you wondered if it could get any worse, then it can. If your job was classified as part-time, casual, or you were employed under a contract instead of employment agreement, or had not formal agreement at all, then you will have no super at all. Yes, it's possible to miss on super altogether. It's an equivalent of pulling a single short straw. This is particularly a problem for young people as well as for those who switched employers after Financial Crisis of 2008 as after crisis companies started to 'save money' by reclassifying their formerly full-time jobs as part-time or casual. I once seen job ad calling their job 'super casual' which in lay term means as much work and commitment as full-time work but without all the benefits a formal full-time employee will be entitled to. Is it a bad deal for an employee, of course it is. It might actually be illegal too, one can even apply for a court hearing on the matter, but it would probably better to consult with ombudsman first. (This is not a legal advice as I have no formal legal qualification).

You also do not get any super if you run your own business. In fact, in this case, it will be up to you to pay super to your employees. This law is the reason why right-wing business owners while about regulations as they would very much prefer to underpay their employees, but laws do not allow for it and courts can order an employer to pay former employees years of underpaid salaries, if violation is exposed.

Finally, if you worked overseas then, for your overseas employment, overseas rules apply. Superannuation is Australian system that applies only withing Australian jurisdiction. Other countries may have similar systems, for example the US has 401k, but in order to claim anything from this system you have deal with their equivalent of super funds and follow their rules. Not all counties have equivalent systems so if does not exist where you worked, tough luck. To make matters worse, if that country suffered from hyperinflation like post-Soviet states in late 80s early 90s, it might turn their equivalent super into mere pennies.

Super is an accumulated amount rather than flat entitlement like say aged pension that is paid for everyone eligible. If you did not accumulate any super when you had the chance, there is nothing you can do now. That said boomers with millions in super still get aged pension on top of their super and that aged pension is higher than unemployed benefits or disability support pension. Very unfair if you ask me.

If you analyse the system, you can notice that under its rules mediocre and loyal clearly have advantage. Someone who stuck with the same employer all their live had an easy retirement with no hassles in claiming their super. Meanwhile someone who chased their dreams, took opportunities and switched careers will have much harder time. Yet worse is someone who took unconventional path of foreign or self-employment, as they got nothing at all.

Because of that this system is also a boon to all sorts of swindlers and con artists. As under such system the least smart and talented have most of the money. Kakistocracy if you like. Such people are easy targets for all sorts of con artists; thus conmen flourish in this era as much as lifetime employees.

Finally, if you wondered if you can still jump on this bandwagon and benefit from this system, the answer is no. Nowadays most companies use all sorts of tricks to avoid paying you super. Thus, no matter how hard you work, you will not have the same luxurious retirement the boomers currently enjoy. Unlike the boomers' time, this is era of smart people, if you are too dumb to make sure your employment agreement entitles you to all the good things, your company will gladly avoid giving any.