Monday, August 14, 2023

On Lifespans of Countries

 


Russian education is just completely corrupt and completely dysfunctional. Just like the rest of the country. Country is literally rotting away from within and dying. It will fall soon.


Countries too have an age span, they grow, reach peaks then decline and finally rot away and die. History teaches us this. Countries do live longer than people but principles are the same.

The Roman Empire for example too eventually reached the end of its life and died. It was not really destroyed by barbarians. To be precise barbarians found a dysfunctional society that was not capable or willing to defend itself. Greedy post Tetrarchy Emperors failed to pay soldiers their salaries, eventually fed up guards simply couldn't care less and opened the gates to barbarians. Well creatively enough some parts of Roman society actually hired these barbarians to guard them in place of dysfunctional armies and emperors. System gradually evolved into first de facto barbarian rule and then barbarian emperors.

The Afghan government did the same thing in 2021 and got the same outcome, as unpaid soldiers simply sat idly and let the Taliban take over. Well their 'leaders' who embezzled (kept for themselves) money meant for salaries, fled the country and are now spending all this cash somewhere in exile.

People remember Rome as it was during the times of Caesar and Augustus around 50BC, but by the time it finally collapsed in 476 it was far from that. 500 years can rot away even Rome.



I can give more modern examples of the Ottoman Empire and Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth.


Ottomans began as one of small beyliks that splintered away from the Seljuk Empire in the 12th century. They managed to get their government and military in order, embraced modern (for 12 century) military practices and technologies. Eventually all that allowed them to win many wars and expand their territories. 

Eventually around 1450 they scored many major victories and became a major power after they won the Battle of Varna in 1444 (start date of Europa Universalis IV) and took Constantinople in 1453. 

They peaked around 1529 when they almost took Vienna. It might as well be that they simply did not care much about taking it at the time. It was not that important of a city back then. 


By 1550 Ottomans controlled half of Mediterania and all of the Middle east.

for 100 years from there on there were some inconclusive wars that did not change situation much


The Second Battle of Vienna 1680 was a much different affair.


Ottomans lost and for the first time ended up losing significant parts of their pre-war territory.

More wars came after but Ottomans kept losing. They tried to modernize and keep up with their opponents but were unable to. Vested interests prevented them from changing. Janiassies that were very effective soldiers by 1450 standards, even best of their kind. By 1700 they were too old fashioned and incapable to keep up with development or war technology. However they were too powerful politically to be removed or reformed in any way. Any attempt to change that failed and the Ottomans collapsed.

Eventually at the end of WWI they finally fell completely both from inside and outside.Outside powers wanted to reduce their borders even more but the Mustafa Kemal Ataturk uprising managed to undo some of it. Mustafa Kemal abolished the old system, expelled the Sultan and Caliph and began a new modern Turkey, created from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire.



Poland and Lithuanian growth began somewhat earlier. Their finest moment was the Battle of Grunwald in 1410. There are monuments to this Battle even in the US King Jagiello Monument - Wikipedia

Eventually they consolidated their land and finished off Teutonic and Livonian Orders and reached their peak in when Poland and Lithuania formally united into a union state (kind of like a marriage between countries)


The union allowed the Polish Golden Age that lasted until the Khmelnitsky uprising.




From there on Poland was declining and eventually was partitioned by its three neighbours and disappeared from world maps for 123 years.


Here too the inability to reform and keep up with times destroyed a once large great power level state. Back after the first partition some parts of Commonwealth society proposed reforms but were defeated by vested interests of szlachta who did not want to lose their power.



Nowadays Poland is somewhat back into existence, but it is far from what it was back then.



Russia planted seeds of growth even before 1600.

During 1400 to 1600 Russia was small and was consolidating first those small principalities of former Kievan Rus that were not taken by Lithuania, they fought and annexed some remnants of Mongol Golden Horde Siege of Kazan - Wikipedia, first somewhat foreght conquest. Khanate of Kazan - Wikipedia This city is actually very close to Moscow geographically. That was soon followed by conquest of Astrakhan Khanate - Wikipedia

After that Russia took on great powers of these times Poland and Ottomans.

They used the above mentioned Khmelnytsky uprising to grow at the expense of Poland.

Russia managed to get powerful and relevant at 1721 when Peter I defeated Carolus Rex and his Ukrainian Hetmanate Allies under Poltava. Poltava was possibly Russian Grunwald.

Russia reached its peak in 1815 after the defeat of Napoleon. 200-250 years later compared to Poland and the Ottomans. At that time Russian borders included much of Poland and Lithuania. 

100 years later in 1917 October Revolution happened Similar to Polish Deluge. The collapse of USSR is similar to first partition of Poland-Lithuania

Then there was opposition to Yeltsin reforms by vested interests who did not want to lose power. Now they desperately cling to Putin as the country decays and collapses.

Fortunately I look at it from a safe distance.

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