Western media likes to portray Lukashenka as helpless vassal of Putin, who is too beholden to Russian 'Tsar' to refuse him.
However, reality is that Lukashenka is much more influential than West wants to believe. He has a lot more sway among Russian elites that the US policymakers believe.
However, there is one more reason for Lukashenko to be involved. He has a lot more stake in keeping war in Ukraine going than even Putin and the rest of Russian elite.
He is not just helpless accomplice. He is almost the main beneficiary.
Lukashenka's Influence
Lukashenka had rather strong influence within Russian corridors of power. Back in late Yeltsin's times he even gunned to becoming a President of Russia or a President of some sort of united state of Russia and Belarus. Union State is a legacy of these aspirations.
Russian Siloviki
Lukashenka is popular among segments of Russian Elites, particularly Siloviki. They occasionally help him out with various concessions, such as cheaper gas and various subsidies. Lukashenka occasionally shows some undue loyalty to Russia that panders to Siloviki's worldviews. Lukashenka does that by promising to mobilize the entire Belarus and hold out NATO Forces in potential war between Russia and the West.
A more sober heads would notice that Belarus will be nothing more than a speedbump in any potential war between NATO and Russia. Not to mention it is very unlikely such a war will happen in the first place. So, they will see no reason why entire Belarus should pay 6 times less for gas compared to neighboring NATO member Lithuania, just to keep this ally afloat and loyal. Russia is losing a lot of money in this deal for nothing of real value.
However Russian Siloviki love Lukashenka's loyalty and use their influence to prop him at Russia expense.
Russian and Belarussian Population
Lukashenka is popular among certain segments of both Russian and Belarussian population as well. He has a kind of 'country simpleton' style of appeal. Similar to Robert Menzies or Barnaby Joyce in Australia, or Ronald Reagan in the US.
Since some segments of population in Russia have not get over the dissolution of the USSR, they see Lukashenka as fellow countrymen rather than a foreign politician.
Lukashenka constituency heavily overlaps with that of Putin himself. Both are supported primary by older, anti-Western, patriotic and less educated people.
That gives Lukashenka a leverage over Putin, as he can turn significant portion of Putin's supporters away from him, if he condemns Putin. At the very least these people in Russia will question Putin's governance if he is to break up with Lukashenko is a ugly fashion.
Gas Pipelines
However, the final and perhaps the most significant leverage Lukashenka has on Russia is that pipes that supply Russian gas and oil to Europe go through Belarussian territory.
To be precise only some of them go through Belarus, others through Ukraine and Putin even build more on the seabed of the Baltic Sea to bypass both of these middlemen. However, pipes that go through Belarus are the largest of them all.
Thus, Belarussian pipes are most crucial for the continued export of Russian oil and gas that provides Europe with fuel for their industry and Russia for their revenue stream. Without its gas and oil Europe will stop and freeze without any fuel and Russia will have no money to pay for its numerous imports.
Lukashenka of course uses this fact to cleverly play both sides, as they both depend on Belarussian pipes for continued functioning of their economies.
Ukraine too has history of using gas transit as leverage on Russia. When negotiations on gas prices did not went their way, Ukraine simply took gas, meant for Europe from their pipelines and used it for domestic consumption. Ukraine - Russia Gas Disputes. The issue was felt acutely in Europe.
Eventually, despite all Russian pressure to make Ukraine pay more and Europe's pressure to keep gas flowing, Ukraine managed to extract concessions on both price and conditions.
No one wants to try what will happen if a country with much higher transit volumes will do the same. Lukashenka clearly uses it to get his way in many of his disputes with both European Union and Russia.
Why Lukashenka need War
While overall reasons for war for Lukashenka are the same as those for Putin, his situation is much more dire that that of the latter.
Lukashenka was nearly toppled in the Belarus Election Protests, so he and his 'elites' are much more fearful of losing power compared to Russian elites.
Both Russia and Belarus are peer-o-cracies (more details in a separate article), their elites have shared perception of threats to their form of government.
Recent elections protests, that Lukashenka possibly handled with the help of riot police from Russia, further exacerbated elites fear of losing power to the uprising.
Putin himself recently got some protests in Russia over his infamous palace and other issues.
Because of that both Putin and Lukashenka desperately needed something to stem the potential upraising. War in Ukraine was that solution.
How far Lukashenka is involved.
It is very likely Lukashenka is as much committed to this war as Putin himself, if not even more so than Putin.
It is very likely that he sent some of Belarussian own soldiers to fight in Ukraine already. To make sure it is not traced to him, he ordered them to fly Russian flags and pretend they are Russians.
Him annotating the map of what looks like a potential further division of Ukraine serves as further prove of him being among the initiators of the war, rather than mere accomplices.
His continued involvement and continued commentary on course of the war further suggests that he is still more than knee deep in the whole thing, despite his best efforts to deny it.
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