Potential End of Lukashenka

 

While Lukashenka does have some influence that allows him to not only stay afloat, but to also play Russia and European Union against each other.

However, if a both sides agree to work together to end Lukashenko's rule, it can be achieved readily.

How Europeans See it

Europeans clearly do not like Lukashenka. They call him 'a last dictator of Europe' and wait for the day when a popular uprising will finally put an end to his never-ending rule. 

From Russian point of view there are many other regimes like his, for example in Central Asia or in Russia itself. However, from European point of view what Lukashenka does is near unprecedented. 

At the very least there is nothing like Lukashenka's authoritarianism is left on actual borders with the EU. Other post-Soviet states, such as Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are functioning democracies and members of the EU and NATO. Ukraine and Moldova are on the way of democratization and eventual membership in the EU. They have issues with corruption, but at the very least they have fair and free elections, free press and other attributes of a liberal democratic society. Political leaders there do change if they lose elections and do not use riot police to suppress protesters and jail their political opponents.

Only Lukashenka and his Belarus defiantly stand against this trend, by consistently showing the EU how much everything there is not like in Europe and how much he is willing to cling to power using nothing more than blatant force. In fact, he is doing it even more obnoxiously than even someone like Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, or Central Asian dictators. Sure, there is not that many protests there, but that allows at least a plausible deniability that people of Azerbaijan are content with Ilham Aliyev rule and do not want change.

Thus, Europeans clearly want a regime change in Belarus.

However European Union assumes that Russia will protect Lukashenka and Belarus from any potential incursion or invasion from the West. Because of that Europe and NATO do not contemplate something like an invasion into Belarus to end Lukashenko's rule.

So, Europeans opt by backing people like Tikhanovskiy and his wife for Presidency, as well as offering Belarusian youth a paid opportunity to study in Lithuania and Poland, so that they can travel into EU, see what they are missing in Belarus and then come back to Belarus and initiate change from within.

How Russia Sees it

While there are people in Russia who want Lukashenka to stay as he is to snub the West, if for no other reason. Cooler heads in Russian government might think that he is more of a problem then an asset.

Russian attitude to Belarus and Lukashenka is much more nuanced. On one hand they would not want to denounce him openly, as that can cost Putin popularity and jeopardize his control over Russia. Lukashenka has allies in Russia and Putin would like to avoid alienating them.

Because Lukashenka controls the pipe, through which Russian gas and oil is supplied into Europe, pushing him too hard might jeopardize these supplies and risk leaving Europe without energy and Russia without money.

Finally, since Lukashenka has allies in Russia, any move against him has to be done, bypassing this people. 

All of the above limits what Putin can do against Lukashenka. It makes it almost impossible to handle him unliterary. 

However, what if Russia and EU work together to end Lukashenka's long reign.

Conflicting Interests

The biggest issue with EU-Russia cooperation is the end results that can satisfy both sides.

Europe wants Belarus to democratize and become like Poland or at least like Ukraine. That will of course endanger Belarussian elites and will make Russian elites wary and anxious. Russia does not want another democracy on its borders as it will only encourage people in Moscow to push for such change in Russia itself.

On the other hand, Russia will want control over the pipeline that supplies gas and oil to Europe. To that end Russia would like to replace Lukashenka with more controllable puppet dictator or annex Belarus altogether. That will not work for Europe as that will only increase Russian control over gas infrastructure in Europe and give Europe nothing to compensate for that.

Potential Compromise

This leaves us with a possibility of a compromise solution that will satisfy both sides.

One such option could be Belarus democratization together with Russia getting a pipe under a military administration, like British bases of Akrotiri and Dhekelia.

Alternative solution would be to split Belarus halfway between Europe and Russia, with Tikhanovskaya government ruling West Belarus and Russia either annexes or forms a splinter state in the east. Vitebsk People's Republic.

Conclusion

However, if Russia and EU can reach an agreement. A military solution to Lukashenka's problem will become possible. With both Europe and Russia against him, Lukashenka will not be able to hold to power.