Ukraine Should Invade Belarus

 

Ukraine should invade Belarus and replace pro-Russian Lukashenka with pro-Ukrainian Tikhanovsakya.

Lukashenko has long been a thorn in the side of Europe. They even dubbed him last dictator of Europe. Sometimes EU tried to engage him but that did not work out. Lukasheno remains stalwart bastion of dictatorship, defying everything Europe believes right and just. For example, fair elections or change in leadership.

European Union clearly indicated that they intend to see Belarus join European Union, but that can only happen when Lukashenka is gone and a democratic governance with fair elections are in place. That is why they invited Belarus to Eastern Partnership program. While Ukraine and Moldova did manage to cover approximately half of the way to join the EU as full member, Georgia is falling behind because their treatment of Saakashvili and protestors, Belarus stagnates and does not progress in that direction at all, they do not even try.

Already bad relationships only got worse after the electoral protests, that Lukashenka crushed with the help of riot police from Russia. European and other western Nations did not recognize the results. Some even went as far as to recognize his main opponent, Tikhanovskaya as rightful ruler of the country. She even has a government in exile in nearby Vilnius in Lithuania. 

Lukashenka responded with various measures that alienated the Europe even further. Lukashenka used fighter jets to ground RyanAir flight to arrest an activist who was on board of the plane. He brought in people from Syria and Iraq, promising them passage to Europe, then just send them to the Polish border, creating a border crisis. All that only further exacerbated Europe's desire to be rid of him. 

Finally, Lukashenko is currently involved in war in Ukraine, supporting Russia in various ways. Most countries consider him and Belarus a co-belligerent in Russian invasion. That can mean that he and Belarus is already involved in war and Ukraine will not be considered an aggressor if Ukraine invades Belarus. That can be considered an act of self-defense.

The internationally recognized Belarussian government-in-exile already exists. All that needs to be done is for Zelenski to meet Tikhanovskaya and agree on a mutually agreeable deal on future fate of Belarus. Later they can also meet European leaders to iron out the agreement with them as well.

Possibility of Success

While Europe wanted to remove Lukashenka for a long time, he was always able to survive by threatening them with Russian retaliation. Europeans do believe that Russia will protect Belarus from a military invasion.

However, that means nothing for Ukraine, as it is already at war with Russia.

Geographically Ukraine is in perfect position as well. Belarus inherited Soviet fortifications on their western border with Poland, breaching them will be hard. However, there are no any fortifications on their borders with either Russia or Ukraine. There are likely no border guards either. Because of that a Ukrainian army might even be able to make it all the way to Minsk, before Lukashinka even knows they are there,

Politically it is also easy to sell. Lukashenka is as much of an invader as Putin is. Replacing him with pro-Ukrainian and pro-European Tikhanovskaya will be a just enough cause for a war.

One final ingredient is the fact that not everyone in Moskow actually likes Lukashenka. Sure, they cannot go against him for their own political reasons, but should someone as Ukraine do it instead, they will be ok with that. Sure, they will criticize the invasion on TV and call Ukrainians Nazi (they do it now anyway). However, they will secretly be happy it turned out this way. Needless to say, they will not retaliate.

Because of all of the above a swift and well-orchestrated invasion will put an end to Luakshenka's dictatorship and bring new ally to Ukraine and the European Union.