Post Cold War Congress of Vienna

Watching video about Congress of Vienna that ended Napoleonic Wars, get me thinking that there are plenty of parallels between this and the end of Cold War. 

Cold War itself was akin to Napoleonic wars in reverse. Napoleon wanted to spread French Revolution by conquest. First Austrian and Prussian and later Russian led coalition eventually. Similarly, USSR was a revolutionary state that attempted to take over the world and spread communism. First French and British and later US led coalition attempted to roll it back.

Napoleon was eventually defeated in Russia. Similarly, USSR was defeated by Americans. USSR even had their own 100 days of Napoleon, when Rutskoy and Hasbulatov attempted to take power in 1993.

Just like Congress of Vienna had 5 Great Powers that shaped the world after, post-Cold War order was also shaped by their own victors.

The USA is new Russia.

The US clearly took Russia's role in that Congress, similarly, claiming sole credit for the defeat of Communism and wanting to take its own kind of reward for that.

European Union is new Prussia.

The other roles are somewhat trickier.

I would say that European Union is Prussia of that Congress. Smallest, but newest, the most advanced and the most ambitions of the great powers. EU, just like Prussia wanted to expand. Just like Prussia they did just that and took many former Eastern European states and even parts of Former USSR. It was somewhat backed by the Americans in that regard.

Just like Prussian and Russian expansion was opposed by the UK, France and Austria. The EU's and NATO's expansion is opposed by Russia, China and other old powers. Events in Ukraine, other post-soviet states and Eastern Europe do show us the same pattern of struggle between the powers. European Union wants to take these lands, citing popular support on the ground, Russia opposes it because some outdated notions of spheres of influence and such.

Eastern Europe is new Germany.

Eastern Europe and especially post-Soviet states do play role of German minor states. 

Austrian ruler was Holy Roman Emperor and through that was a protector of the Holy Roman Empire Member states/territories. That came to lapse during the Napoleonic wars and afterwards Prussia became expanding at their expense, culminating in creation of German Empire.

Eastern Europe was part of Soviet Sphere. USSR claimed they protected these states, even if states themselves believe they were oppressed against their will. HRE states also choose Napolean over Austria back during the Napoleonic Wars. Now that USSR and Warsaw pact are gone, Eastern European states increasingly joining or attempt to join the EU. Russia opposes that just like Austria used to oppose Prussia in 19th century. 

Korea, Taiwan and broader Southeast Asia is new Poland.

At Congress of Vienna, Russia consistently defended their unilateral decision to keep all the Polish-Lithuania lands to themselves. They threatened war and eventually kept it all with exception of Poznan Province and Malopolska that went to Prussia and Austria respectively. Russia justified it as reward for defeating Napoleon.

Nowadays the US protects Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and possibly other South-East Asian states from Chinese hegemony. China and Russia could only keep hold on North Korea and possibly Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. China is particularly outraged with that.

There is a monument placed where used to be borders between Russia, Austria and Prussia. Korean DMZ is not only symbolic but also practical monument of border between China sphere and the US sphere.

Russia is new Austria.

It would be logical to assume that Russia is France in this comparison, but I would argue that its closer to Austria than to France. Russia is more of a diplomatic than military power. Its time under the sun allowed them to cultivate lots of allies in many places. Russia is just as heterogeneous as Austria. 

Just like Austria, used to protect various small states in what is now Germany and Italy, Russia now protects various dictators across the globe: Bashar Assad in Syria, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Ali Khamenei in Iran. Modern Arab world and Africa are like Germany and Italy of the past. Just as divided. Ruled by dictators and most of the time subservient to foreign powers.

I do suspect that Russia will eventually meet the same fate as Austria did after WWI.

Middle East is new Italy.

We might say that Middle East is new Italy. Italy was divided and fragmented. Austria and Spain controlled significant number of small Italian states. Nowadays Russia controls Middle Eastern Syria and Iran for example. They partly control Yemen and used to control Iraq as well. Many other Middle Eastern States all have strong ties to USA, for example Saudi Arabia.

Italy was eventually united by Savoy (Sardinia-Piedmont). That was indirect as Garibaldi and his Redshirts were the ones who toppled all the small state government and delivered these states to Savoyard dynasty.

Savoy's closest modern equivalent would likely be Pakistan, Afghanistan or Iran. I do not think Middle East will be happy about it though. Just like Savoy, Iran and Pakistan doing it indirectly through the proxies. Iran controls Hizballah that is active in many places across Middle East. Some speculate that Pakistan is behind Taliban. Both Iran and Pakistan have big friends among great powers. Russia is behind the Iran and the US is possibly behind Pakistan.

Yugoslavia (Serbia) is new Saxony. 

Yugoslavia and Serbia fulfill role of Saxony. 

Congress wanted to give Saxony to Prussia, just like EU wants to absorb former Yugoslav republics. Back then Austria also used all their influence in attempt to Save Saxony and saved its core territory around Dresden and Leipzig. 

Nowadays Russia safeguards anti-EU regimes in parts of former Yugoslavia, especially its core lands: Serbia, self-proclaimed Republica Srpska in Bosnia.

China is new France.

I would argue that China is France. China is more homogenous, just like France. It does try to cultivate special relationship with the US, just like France did with Russia. Just like France, China has self-image of former grandeur and believes they deserve more prestige and glory on world stage. Just like France saw themselves co-equal with Russia, China sees itself as co-equal with the US. Just like France used to snub UK, China snubs Japan.

Just like France, China fancies itself a diplomatic genius, that will get all they want with their "long term strategy" and Belt and Road initiative. Just like with France these are baseless naivete. China, like France back then get themselves involved in Africa and Southeast Asia.

Japan is new UK.

And finally, the biggest winner of the Cold War: Japan, who is this world UK. UK was somewhat behind the scenes during the Napoleonic Wars. Just how Japan was behind the scenes in Cold War.

Just like UK was the most developed and technologically advanced state at the end of Napoleonic wars, Japan is the most developed and technologically advanced state onwards. Before Napoleonic wars UK was considered a primitive fringe country of no particular importance. East Asia (China and Korea) still think that Japan is fringe and more primitive compared to them. In both cases it's not true.

Post-Napoleonic UK's power came not from the strong Army, but rather from technology, navy, industrialization and more technologically advanced society compared to the rest of Europe. Back then world wanted the goods UK produced or traded. The rest eventually adopted the UK's ways. 

Nowadays people do want Japanese technologies, games and culture. Japan became trade and imitation paragon: the role, UK has back then.