Orban and Erdogan Take Bribes from Putin

Recently there were a lot of speculations on why Turkey and Hungary were blocking Sweden accession into NATO.

Erdogan of Turkey would voice ambiguous and vague accusation towards Sweden, that gave no real explanation of issues he concerned or how to address them. In private meeting he would assure Swedes and NATO that accession protocols would we voted in eventually, but then something would get in the way yet again and problem would remain unresolved.

Eventually someone speculated that Erdogan wants to use the Sweden question as a bargaining chip to by American F16. For no better explanation, the US jumped on that and offered Turkey the jets in exchange for ratification of Sweden accession. Finally at the end of January, Turkey moved ahead with ratification.

Is the question finally over? Turned out no. Now Hungary, the last holdout, fails to move ahead with ratification. 

Hungary's Orban promised he would not be the last, but on 5 of February his party failed to show up for a vote. Some say that was because Hungarian Parliament is scheduled to reconvene in late February and Fides MPs do not want to cut their holidays short, even if opposition did cancel theirs to vote on Monday. However Hungarian Parliamentary website says that Parliament Resumes 1st of February.

So, what is the real issue here. When Hungary will vote. Hungarian Speakers, who supposed to know the schedule of their work, instead says they will vote only when Swedish Prime Minister meets wil Orban, even if Orban do not especially insists on that.

What's Really Going On

So, what is going on? Why conflicting accounts and all the confusion? Why no one in Hungary or Turkey knows when they will vote or why they even oppose Swedish accession to begin with?

The answer is bribery. It is very likely that both Erdogan and Orban or their close confidants accepted bribes from Putin or his allies in exchange for frustrating Swedish accession into NATO.

That is why both Hungary and Turkey oppose accession with a series of incoherent and incohesive statements, that make no sense whatsoever. 

They cannot say they did it for Putin's dirty cash as that would get them charged and convicted with criminal offence of accepting bribe.

However, they could not think of any good reason to cover their tracks either. So, they keep throwing ever changing statements to keep Putin's bribes filling their secret Panama or Cayman Islands bank accounts with cash.

I do wonder if they will eventually go down with their own Fitzgerald Reports.

Why Putin Needs It

Putin does have reputation for corruption and illicit cash. Recent Panama Papers do show a glimpse of the system he presides over.

However why would Putin spend his cash on frustrating Swedish application. Sure, Putin also known to oppose NATO expansion. However, even if that was the reason, then Finland that actually borders Russia is much more important for defense, than Sweden that does not. If nothing else Sweden can simply permit NATO to station their troops on their territory to achieve the same defense outcome.

I think its realistically clear for everyone that eventually Sweden will become member of NATO. Some arrangement will be made if Hungary continues to block it. So, the best Putin can hope is to delay it rather than prevent it altogether.

The answer is the propaganda. Putin is frustrated from internal criticism from liberal Russians that his system is authoritarian and undemocratic. That does mobilize protests against him so he wants something that will distract public from that. War in Ukraine is one such thing. The Sweden frustration saga is the other.

Just the fact that Turkey and Hungary frustrate the vote is enough. Dmitry Kiselev will misinterpret the rest for Russian public. He will claim in his Weekend analytical problem that West is not less authoritarian than Russia. He will further add that Americans forced Sweden and Finland into NATO and now forcing Turkey and Hungary to ratify it without "any respect to due process".

Russian elections are soon and there will be accusations that the elections are falsified in Putin's favor and his opponents, such as Navalny are jailed. These accusations can mobilize Russians to protest Putin's continued rule, just like Ukrainians done during Orange Revolution and Euromaidan or Belarussians after 2020 elections. So, Putin wants something to smear the West, democracy as a system and fair conduct as a principle to keep Russians disillusioned.

Disillusioned people do not protests and that is good enough for Putin to keep his grip on power. If enough of them will start believing that things will be better if he is removed, he will end up like Yanukovich. Except there are only North Korea further east, who can offer him asylum and refuse to hand him over to the new authorities, just like he refuses to hand over Yanukovych and his gang to new Ukrainian government.