On Syria

 

Big event this month that I have not written about yet was Assad's regime collapse in Syria. The reason I did not write about this is because regime collapsed very abruptly as well as ambiguity of the actual control on the ground. 

HTS rebel group that took over had some ties with Al-Qaida, but not anymore. That still leaves the question of what they stand for or who supports them. Maybe it is Turkey, maybe it is Saudi Arabia, maybe they are free from everyone. In the past, they occasionally fought other rebels over various disagreements. Possibly they did not want to share power. At the same time, they also united with and absorbed many other rebel groups. Pragmatic inconsistency of their action reminds me of Lelouch and Black Knights. 

I wonder if HTS made some deals with some people in Assad circle or even with Russia itself to ger where they got. If they made any deals, then the question is what the terms were and will they honor them when in power or not. As of now it still remains to see what the new government will bring in.

To make matters more complicated. Closer to fall of Damascus other rebels spring into action as well and took control of parts of the country. It was unclear if they will work with HTS or not. Recently HTS announced that they reached some deal with them to integrate into new government. I think that addresses the so-called Southern Operation Room group, that controlled areas south of Damascus. 

Finally, there was issue of transitional government, but later news all confirms that HTS government of National Salvation from Idlib will be fulfilling this role.

That only leaves Turkish backed FSA in the north, SDF in northeast and a commando army on Jordan border supported by Americans who took Palmyra. 

The problem with FSA, is that it consists of rebels, who got on the bad side of HTS. Many of FSA fighters were likely expelled from Idlib by HTS. It is unlikely they will work with HTS voluntarily unless Turkey pressures them. 

Some claim that Turkey supports HTS just as much as FSA, if that is the case then Turks will likely use FSA to fight Kurds from SDF and then force them to accept the HTS as their new rulers. However, if Turkey is not HTS supporter, then FSA controlled north, and Turkish occupation will continue, and it will be hard for HTS to remove it.

American backed commando army is too small, not very battle ready and plagued with corruption. They will possibly intergrade with new regime, if they will get some assurances from HTS about their future policies. 

That leaves Kurds from SDF as the only major question. HTS and SDF might not be able to find ways of cooperation and thus a new round of civil war will ensure.

There are all the unknows that we know of. Let's hope that Syria has a bright future ahead of it.

I will finish on a good note. Assad's tyrannically regime is gone, people he unfairly imprisoned are now free. He no longer has capacity to use Zarin gas to mass murder. This is a great victory for liberty loving people everywhere in the world.

Assad himself went to dictators' favorite safe haven: Russia, where he will join Yanukovych, Abashidze and many others, who are hiding there from justice. Russia, country that created Assad and many others like him still stands and attempts to spread its evil across the globe. Hopefully some good rebel group will one day take Moscow and put an end to this evil at its core. As bad as Assad was, he is but Putin light. True evil remains and only gets worse.

Hopefully freedom will prevail.