Donald Trump victory in the US elections sparked renewed conversation about peace in Ukraine. Together with talks about peace there also surfaced a much murkier and more confusing topic about terms of any such peace. Different sides of conflict all have different views as to what a fair peace deal will look like, such differences in views might very well preclude any peace from being made.
I already predicted that instead of any negotiated peace the current situation with de-facto zones of military control on the ground would become de-facto reality. This is not the peace any of the sides really want but it's the only one either of them can achieve.
Current de facto line of control would become a new frontier or a de-facto border between not just Russia and Ukraine but also between European Union and Western world on one hand and the eastern Eurasian Russian Chinese one. A new frontier of the Second Cold War. Kind of like Korean DMZ. I will cover Second Cold War in a separate article, here I will talk about Ukraine in particular.
This de facto military line of control is not perfect, but it is better than de-jure borders or any of the maximalist aims, professed by either side.
Letting Russia keep the territory it occupied may seem like a loss to Ukraine. However, a real loss would be losing sovereignty and being turned into a Moscow puppet, just like Belarus is. Losing some borderlands is much better than letting Moscow tell Kyiv what to do.
Both pro-Russian and pro-European side tend to overestimate their popularity and underestimate that of the opposing side. Everyone thinks that everyone else is much like their own neighborhood and if there are any different people, they are but a small minority. In reality the country is much more diverse than that.
Yanukovich era Minister of Education, Tabachnik, once proposed to make Galicia (West Ukraine) into its own country. He erroneously thought that pro-Western sentiment is limited to just that area of the country and by making it independent from the rest of Ukraine he can solve the political division and turn the rest of Ukraine into second Belarus.
Reality is that pro-European sentiment spreads much further east than just Galicia. Even areas as far as Poltava, Sumy and Kremenchug are very pro-European and majority there speaks Ukrainian language daily. Even some mostly or partly Russophone cities like Dnipro or Odesa, would prefer EU over Eurasia. Donbas is rather unique it its Russophone monolingualism and Ukrainian language can be heard frequently in Dnipro, Odesa and even sometimes in Kharkiv.
On the other hand, pro-Ukrainian (European) side thinks that the whole conflict only happened because of history of Russification mixed with Russian propaganda aimed at advancing Russian Imperialist ambitions against Ukraine. They think that Ukraine already lost a lot in the past and it would be unfair to give Russia any more land that they already grabbed. Theya also thinks that if Putin's propaganda can be stopped, country can be united once again. Past Russification can be undone, and Ukraine will be happy and united again.
Reality is that Donbas, Crimea and Azov Sea coast were settled by Russian Empire in 19th century and almost no one there can understand Ukrainian language. It is areas with mixed population like Dnipro and Zaporizhya that de facto divide Ukraine pro-Russian and pro-European sides of the country. Even politicians such as Yulia Timoshenko and Volodymir Zelenskiy did not spoke Ukrainian language when they were children and learned it at later times in life.
In the past I wrote several articles about why current post-Soviet borders are not good and what better borders there could be in this region. I liked some here and you can find more if you search my blog.
Not only that, but current de-facto border has its advantages to Ukraine.
Back before Euromaidan and any wars with Russia when Ukraine had control over all of its de-jure territory, Ukrainian politics were dominated by constant geopolitical strife. Half of the country wanted to integrate with European Union and the other half with Russian Eurasia instead. Politics were dominated by this geo-political division.
If Ukraine regains back all of its de-jure territories, this geo-political split will likely once again dominate politics in Kyiv. Pro-Russian people from currently Russia occupied lands will vote for anti-EU, pro-Russian parties that will work to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU and NATO. Someone like Yanukovych could again win election. That would mean that Ukraine will forever be stuck in a geo-political limbo between East and West. That is something that benefits neither west, nor Ukraine itself.
Ultimately Ukraine needs to rid itself of its anti-European ballast and finally join EU and NATO. As much as you can argue that Donbas and Crimea are brainwashed by Putin and his TV, there is no simple and easy way to undo this brainwashing, Russian TV is free to air and broadcasting towers from Russia reach far into its neighbors' territory. All the Russophones who want to watch Russian propaganda are always able to tune it. As stupid as it is to believe Putin's lies about Banderites and Nazis in Ukraine, people of Donbas and Crimea choose to do so. It's time to stop trying to save them and simply let them join Russia they love so much.
On the other hand, Russia should not be allowed to dictate Kyiv what to do. People of Ukraine from Lviv to Kremenchug did choose Europe over their ties with Moscow. Euromaidan is definitive proof of that. It's an ultimate democratic expression of popular will. It will be unfair to betray these people who fought for freedom and their free choice of their future.
Ukraine is Europe. Ukraine is not Eurasia or some brotherly nation of Russia. Thus, Ukraine should be allowed to join EU and NATO and Russia absolutely should not receive any Finlandization style concessions on this.
Sovereignty of Ukraine should be guaranteed by Western military presence. Border between Ukraine and Russia occupied areas should be reinforced and patrolled by European or UN troops to prevent further fighting.
Ukraine joining European Union will benefit both sides enormously. It will improve quality of life in Ukraine while Europe will benefit from skilled and educated workforce that Ukraine has. It will also improve security of both sides. Ukraine will stop being vulnerable to Russian incursions and Europe will become bigger and its negotiation position with other international players will be stronger.
One last issue that remains are people who ended up on the wrong side of the East-West divide. There are some pro-Russian people left in Odesa and Kharkiv, on the other hand there are many pro-European people in Russian occupied areas as well as in Russia's core lands itself.
A population swap should be arranged so that those who want to live in Europe could move to Ukraine while those who want to live in Russia could move there instead. Anti-Putin Liberals from Russian occupied areas as well as from Russia itself can take place of pro-Putin Eurasians in Odesa and Kharkiv.
Ultimately differences between different parts of Ukraine can only be solved by a fair division so that each side of the geopolitical divide can get their own country and move towards their desired objectives. Then each side can finally stop fighting tug of war and start building its future.
Hopefully these objectives can be achieved in the coming peace talks or at the very least on the ground. Glory to Ukraine.