In one of my previous articles explained why Russia is now in the same situation as Ottoman Empire was in early 19th century. The only thing that awaits Russia is eventual collapse and split up into a number of nation states.
However, that is Russia's future. Russian past is equally if not more interesting to analyze. That is what Russia was back then in early 19th century when the Ottomans were collapsing. Surprisingly enough 200 years ago Russia was almost a complete inversion of its modern self. It was much like modern day United States. It was not just a similarity in level of power and status on global stage. Internally and psychologically 19th century Russia was a lot more like modern day US then modern-day Russia.
19th century Russia was if not land of freedom, then land or opportunities at the very least. It was already too late to get a district in Moscow named after oneself, like Le Fort did, but there was still enough wealth to make and opportunities to start new life, particularly in scarcely populated lands of former Crimean Khanate. People actually immigrated into Russia from other countries of the world, particularly Orthodox Christians from Balkans, such as Greeks, Bulgarians and Serbs. Modern descendants of these people have long forgotten where they came from, but significant parts of population of Crimea, Odesa, Dnipro and Azov Sea coast (modern de-jure Ukraine) are of Balkan origin, some moved to what is now parts of Russia as well.
There were things to do and build in 19th century Russia. Government and rulers had big plans for the future, build and expanded cities, ports and many more. These plans needed a lot of people to fulfil and so a lot of beautiful cities and towns were built to house them. Odesa alone grew from nothing to second or third largest city in the entire Empire. Migrants together with locals together build 19th century Russia into an economic and trade powerhouse as they build themselves new lives in this new country.
In modern Russia the only thing elites build are mansions for themselves and their families. People do not want to serve elites without getting anything out of it for themselves. From a magnet to immigrants Russia turned into source of emigrants to other countries. Only Central Asians migrate to Russia and only because they have no better options. Even they do not want to stay there and bring money they earn their back to their countries.
Geopolitically 19th century Russia actually advocated rights for freedom and self-determination for Serbs, Bulgarians, Greeks and other Balkan people. Russia supported many of their uprisings against Ottoman rule with arms supplies and other things. Russia even used their own troops to fight for these people them.
Nowadays for example Bulgarian people are still fondly remember Russia for these efforts even if their government acknowledges that modern Russia no longer stands for Bulgarian interests. Modern Russia instead accuses EU and US of supporting protests against Russian authorities in Moscow as well as against pro-Russian authorities in post-Soviet states.
I wonder if Ottomans claimed back then that Turks, Serbs, Bulgarians and Greeks were all part of the same Greater Turkish identity, and their languages are dialects of Turkish just like Russia does nowadays about Ukraine. You can hear such opinions from modern Turkish nationalists. However, Ottomans did insist that these people do not have right for self-determination or right to secede from Ottoman Empire, just like Russia says nowadays about Ukraine.
Russian aims for Balkans were not completely altruistic either. There were economic reasons for all these wars with Ottomans too. In 18th century Ottomans had effective monopoly on sea shipping in Black Sea due to controlling every single port on the coast. Russia wanted a port of its own to avoid selling good to Turks for cheap who would later sell them in Europe and make 10 times profits. Ultimately Russia wanted to own Constantinople and have direct access to Mediterranean Sea.
Modern Russia buys Natural Gas from Turkmenistan and other Central Asians for $50 and resells it in Europe for $399+ and they put up with it because Russia controls the only pipelines from Central Asia to Europe.
Why it Matters to the US and Europe
Just as much as Russia can clearly see its future in the Ottoman Empire's past, the US can see theirs in Russian past. Unlike Russia the US will not collapse and disappear in less than 100 years' time, that will only happen in 300 years' time. Until that time there is still a lot of things that is going to happen to America and Americans, both good, bad and in between. It is wise to be prepared for these events, perhaps try to change something.
Parallels between modern US and Russia 200 years ago are also staggering. For example, Jan 6 Capitol riots are similar to Decembrist Revolt during Nicolas I ascension to the throne (not to be confused with Nicolas II), both happened due to succession dispute/issues. Nicolas I just like Trump were seen as more authoritarian and selfish compared to their predecessors. Just like Donald Trump, Nicolas I liked to complain that Europeans do not treat Russia fairly. During reign of Nicolas I predecessor, Russia became pre-eminent power in Europe after defeating Napoleon and marching all the way to Paris to ensure French Revolution is crushed. (Emperors at average reign longer than presidential term, so several US presidents have to be equated with one Emperor.) The US became sole superpower after they defeated USSR in Cold War to ensure end of global communism. After defeat of Napoleon Russia maintained a so-called Holy League, military alliance with friendly European powers. The US does similar thing with NATO. Holy League eventually dissolved due to disagreement over the Ottoman question between Russia it European Allies. NATO is now in jeopardy due to disagreement over Russian question. List can continue.
Knowing all that we can easily predict another century or so of US enjoying its superpower status with occasional hiccups and upsets here and there. There will be lots of reflections on American specialness and greatness. A lot will be spent on vanity and self-aggrandizement, but also a lot will be spent on fulfilling American mission in the world as elites understand it.
Just like 19th century Russia saw itself at protector of Orthodox Christians, Americans will define themselves as defenders of something, right now there are several options: leader of free world, nation under god, defender of capitalism. Possibly some sort of fusion of these will be created.
Somewhere mid-century a need for a reform will become apparent and attempts at it will be made. Mild economic grows will continue throughout the 21st century but will likely stop in 22nd century. Next century will likely see some sort of American Revolution that will bring changes to governance and society. The revolution will likely be followed by an attempt to spread it globally, possibly but not necessary by force of arms. Some new rising superpowers will emerge then.
Recent changes to American approach to Russia and Europe do look shocking but if you look at it from this article perspective, they will become not only possible but even predictable. In 19th century Russia has evolved from a protector of Europe from Napoleon's autocracy, into a backward ultra-conservative autocracy. The US appears to follow the same path. The US might want to rethink this path as it hardly allowed Russia to achieve much. Europe on the other hand might want to build its own independent military capabilities to stop being hostage to American whims.
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