Among all the talk about War in Ukraine there are occasional talk that Trump and US want to focus on China and leave Europe to its own defenses. However, a prolong war between US and China is rather unlikely due to geographic reasons.
Back in 19th century UK used to describe potential war between themselves and Russia as impossible as Battle between Elephant and a Whale. UK was a preeminent Naval power; all parts of its global empire were connected to each other by sea. In contrast all Russian possessions were directly adjusted to it by land. British Navy vastly outnumbered Russian one, making any Naval war on sea a foregone conclusion for UK. On the other hand, a prolonged battle deep inland would likely go in Russian favor due to lack of Naval support for UK.
Due to these facts' direct confrontation between UK and Russia. In Crimean war UK with the help of France and Italy narrowly prevailed over Russia. However, these areas were close to sea and allowed Navy to help. Russia once came close to British India, but UK checked it by pushing Afghan borders further north and creating a buffer between British India and Russian Central Asia. Afghan panhandle exist precisely to prevent direct border between two.
A war between US and China can similarly be described as battle between Elephant and Whale. US Navy and Air Force vastly outnumber the Chinese one. It has better equipment and tech as well. There is no way China can defeat the US on sea or close to it.
On the other hand, Chinese land army is much larger than American one. Thus, a lengthy pivot inland would near equally be impossible for the US.
These facts leave buy few areas where a confrontation between US and China will not swiftly settle in ones or the other's favor.
History of wars between America and China confirms that. In Korea the US could hold out to southern part of peninsula due to it being less mountainous and forested and therefore more open for Airforce as well as Army's heavy equipment. China won the north because woods and mountains make both Airforce and tanks near useless. War in such areas are therefore decided with sheer numbers of infantry, something US could never have more than China. Same situation led to the US eventual defeat in Vietnam. US could reasonably hold to cities and build up areas but Jungle was full of Viet Cong and there was nothing the US could do about them.
On the other hand, China avoids attacking Taiwan precisely because straight between it and mainland is wide enough for the US to destroy and sink anything they could try to ship across. South Korea is still out of reach of Beijing and there is no real question about Japan either as they are literal islands.
There are but few placed where confrontation between China and US is theoretically possible. For example, China could try taking north Thailand, but they will not be able to take Bangkok or the south. South Thailand is surrounded by water from both sides.
Thus, American pivot to Asia could be a false alarm. Considering that Russia and China are close one cannot rule out that Putin's war in Ukraine is actually in Chinese rather than Russian interests. If that is the case, then US needs to help Ukraine to stop China.
However, US should remain vigilant on all sides. One cannot get careless and drop the guard too low in such situations.
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