More on Sloviansk Issue

A while ago I claimed in one of my other articles that real objective of Putin's war in Ukraine is to take town of Sloviansk in Donetsk oblast. 

There is certain evidence that suggests that to be the case. For example, in Kharkiv counter-offensive Ukraine managed to advance that far because best Russian units were not facing westwards towards Kharkiv but southward towards Sloviansk.

I already explained in my previous article why particularly Sloviansk, a town of no real significance, matters to Russia so much. In this article I want to say that this is a town that Ukraine can trade to Russia without much detriment for itself. 

Out of so called 4 oblasts that Russia has claimed, Donetsk holds little value to Ukraine and therefore territory of Donetsk oblast can be traded for something of real value to Ukraine. for example, money needed for reconstruction of the country.

The same cannot be said about Kherson Oblast. It has land on both left and right banks of Dnipro River. Ukraine absolutely cannot give Russia anything west of Dnipro River as that would give Russia a bridgehead for a future invasion. The river is a natural defensive barrier that can protect Ukraine in the event of another war with Russia. Thus, giving any land west of the river is completely unacceptable. Currently Ukraine holds west bank and Russia east bank of the river. This river on the border should be in final peace plan. 

In general. If Russia insist on any claims on west bank of Dnipro, then Russia almost certainly intends to use them as bridgehead to continue the war and seize even more land once they amassed a strike force on the bridgehead. Thus, any attempt to secure such bridgehead in negotiations should be rejected no matter what.

Another of Russian claims, Zaporizhya is located on the east bank, but it's close to the river and the city has relatively pro-Ukrainian population and important factories that among other things produce jet engines. Loss of this city is not as unacceptable as Kherson oblast west bank, but still very problematic. It will disrupt the current line of control by creating a Russian salient, protruding and surrounded by Dnipro Oblast. That will make defense harder that it should be. Thus, this town cannot be traded for anything.

Finally, Sloviansk and the rest of Donetsk Oblast area held by Ukraine is surrounded by lands held by Russia, has low economic value and has population with pro-Russian views. Getting rid of this toxic asset could benefit Ukraine if done cleverly. From defense perspective they hold little value aside from usual urban warfare roadblock. Americans already suggested that Ukrainian Army simply abandon towns as they hold little military value.

Last of four oblasts, Luhansk is already almost completely controlled by Russia so there is no need to negotiate here.

As to what Ukraine can get in exchange for Sloviansk there are several options.

One is money. Ukraine need money to rebuild itself. Sure, seizing Russian assents could help but that is not enough, more is needed. Since Putin needs particularly Sloviansk, he likely will be willing to pay to get the town. Saudi Arabia can be a middleman to handle the money. Once Russia paid the agreed sum to Saudis, Ukraine can transfer land to Russia and claim money. 

One other issue to sort out would be building new defensive line west and north of Sloviansk. Ukraine would need several months to complete this task.

Second option is to trade this land for land elsewhere, for example East bank of Dnipro in Kherson oblast or Nikopol Nuclear Plant. While that is possible but too risky, these lands would be surrounded by Russia and could become an easy target for Russian re-occupation.

See map here.

While Russian paper claims on lands they do not control in Kherson and Zaporizhya Oblasts absolutely cannot be granted, Russian claims in Donetsk can be satisfied in exchange for something of value to Ukraine. Considering for Putin Sloviansk is probably more valuable than his other claims, it can be a muutally beneficial deal.