However Russian continued war in Ukraine made me re-think that assumption. If after all this time Russian leadership still thinks they can win, they are downright delusional. Russia starting war in 2022 could have been explained by variety of factors: imperialistic opportunism, distraction from internal problems, elimination of demographics hostile to Putin's rule and so on. However, any of these reasons would eventually lead to Kremlin either settling on some ceasefire or let war die down like they did with original war in Donbas where no agreement was implemented but fighting gradually fizzled out.
The fact that despite all that Russia continues fighting shows something else. That Russian leadership is delusional. They lost touch with reality and either grew to either believe their own lies or someone who believed these lies all along took real power in Moscow and now steers it towards full on confrontation. Such actions clearly contradict reality. Russia is weak and it will only grow weaker as time goes. It cannot win against EU or NATO. Thus, those who insist on continued fighting are either foreign agents (of Poland or China most likely) that want to destroy Russia from within or delusional local idiots who think that Russia is still a superpower capable of winning or projecting power. It is also possible to assume that Poland deliberately helped Russia's own delusional idiots to take power and start this war.
Regardless, if its work of Poles or local idiots, Russia is currently controlled by delusional people who are completely out of touch with reality. The very fact that something like this is possible in current Russia is a danger to the entire world. These delusional idiots are currently on course to completely destroy Russia from within, leaving an empty shell of a nation.
If war continued, drained down Russia will be ripe for China to overtake by stealth. Chinese been crossing their norther border into Russia for some time now, thanks to Putin's war, that will only intensify as now Russia has shortage of people and will need Chinese to take jobs vacated by conscripted locals.
Needless to say, that Chinese takeover is not something that will benefit the world. If China gets whole or most of Russia it will become too powerful to deal with. Thus, West has to pre-empt Chinese takeover by interfering in Russia, directly taking parts of the country and splitting the rest into viable smaller nation states that will have no capacity to wage war.
Doing nothing poses other risks too. For example, Russia has nukes, corruption possibly destroyed them, but there is a chance they are still operational or can be tinkered with to work somehow. Since current Russian leadership is delusional, they may use these nukes when backed into a corner. One of Putin's famous quotes was about cornered rat.
As things stand now, Russian leadership is on course to completely exhaust its male population in the grinder of its war in Ukraine. After that collapse of Russian state will not just be inevitable, it will also become an imminent rather than long term prospect.
Thus, world has to prepare itself for this outcome and think of the ways to reorganise former-Russia into something viable and fitting modern times. Articles I wrote over the course of several years can be very helpful in deciding how to re-shape Russia. Maps like these are curious but they do not take local realities into due consideration.
Modern European Russia has to be split into smaller units, around 10 to 15 million people each as in this size they will have easier time joining the EU and NATO. Logistics and rivers also have to be taken into consideration. Geographic features have to be taken into consideration too to make sure defence is easy and invasions or aggression is hard. Don basin should be in a different country from Volga basin and generally rivers should be divided in a way to avoid any single nation from hogging up all the key logistical routes and exploiting others for access to these things.
In contrast Siberia should be divided into larger units as these areas are sparsely populated and too small of a nation will not be able to defend itself or even effectively control its territory. Americans should annex East Siberia and Far east directly into the US and develop it Alaska style. West Siberia can survive as its own state and will be very rich thanks to oil and gas exports. It should be a successor to modern Russia but should not called Russia. Lena River can be a border between American Siberia and Independent Siberia.
Russian current subdivisions should not be used uncritically in determining new borders. For example, Ural Mountains make for a good natural border and thus should be border between new states rather than have a state stretching all along this long mountain range.
Pragmatic side of Russian elites can be enticed into supporting this plan with promises to give them control of the Independent Siberian state. Hydrocarbons from this state will only enhance their opulent lifestyle as they will no longer have to support the rest of Russia with the money they make. Patriotic elites will have to be eliminated.
Suicidal actions of current Russian government leaves world no choice but to prepare for near term Russian collapse. To prevent parts of collapsing Russian state from falling into Chiense hands, West should plan for the collapse and be ready to act when time comes. Bribe elites with lucrative Siberian state, split European Russia into manageable for Euro integration medium size states, finally annex far eastern parts directly into the United States. That way we can ensure the orderly transition and stability for years to come all while PRC and CCP get nothing, or just token concessions.
No comments:
Post a Comment