How Russia has Learned from Mistakes of Afghanistan

Back in one of my previous articles I said that reality of Soviet Afghan war eventually led towards glasnost and even collapse of USSR. Once truth of that war managed to slip through the iron curtain, public turned against the government and not even Gorbachev could do much.

Key element that allowed this development was the fact that USSR had universal conscription. Once people woke up to the idea that their loved ones could actually be killed in this war and returned to them in a coffin, public got restless. That was that small domino that fell first and eventually pulled many others with it and destroyed USSR.

However, Putin aware of this problem and made certain arrangements as to prevent the same outcome. The reason Putin refuses to call full mobilization is precisely because it will lead to the same outcomes. To avoid Afghan war style fallout, Putin recruits' people from prisons as well as ethnic minorities or other isolated people. All those who will not be missed by anyone can safely be sent to die in Ukraine and there will be no outrage.

So long as their own loved one are not in danger of dying in Ukraine, majority in Moscow will not oppose the war. Thus, Putin can continue, and nothing will change so long as he does not recruit from main body of Muscovites. 

After two years of war, Putin actually ran out of those he could safely recruit. To solve this problem, he tapped into North Korean military to plug the gaps in his own lines. He can safely fight for a long as there are North Korean soldiers to spare. I do not know if he can tap into Iranians or Chinese if he runs out of North Koreans. Either way all these soldiers will not let him win completely, just move line of contact and take a few cities here and there.

Just like during Afghan war, Putin severely downplays severity of war in Ukraine. He misleads people into thinking that there are little casualties or destruction to keep their support. Putin's total control of media allows him to prevent Muscovites from expose to realities of war. Exposure to realities of war is what destroyed USSR. 

Putin makes it extra sure average Muscovite thinks war in Ukraine is mostly about rebuilding hospitals and schools, destroyed by mythical Nazis. That way support for his actions will remain high. If people realize just how much damage Russian military have caused, the support for war will dwindle. Because of that Putin makes sure there are no independent media to report on realities on the ground.

That is how Putin keeps himself afloat in this war. Smart and targeted action is needed to kick him off his high horse. There should be concerted effort to break informational blockade to reach out to people in Moscow.