European Defense Spending

 

Recently Donald Trump once again raised issue of European military spending and even went as far as to suggest that US will not defend those who do not spend enough on defense.

Even in this form it was somewhat pointless threat. Countries that border Russia or Belarus and therefore actually need defending are already spending a lot of money on defense; Poland spends even more than the US does. The only ones who are slacking are those who can be certain war will not come to them. Russia cannot stage naval invasion so it will have to go through intermediate courtiers to reach its targets. For example, to attack Germany, Russia will need to defeat Poland first. Because of that Spain sleeps peacefully, knowing that Russia will not reach it until it defeats Poland, Germany and France. 

Thus, Trump's threat will not convince Spanish or other slackers to spend more on defense. All they will do is make Poles, Finns and Baltics worry more about Russia and squeeze even more money out of their not so rich economies on weapons. 5 million strong Finland already has about as many tanks as 37 million Spain and they will likely increase that amount.

However recently a real reason for these threats have emerged. Procurement of American weapons. Trump likely wants to boost American military industrial complex and make Europeans pay for it.

Here too he miscalculated. To begin with, many European countries have their own defense industries and can offer alternatives to American weapons. For most equipment it's a competitive market. Even battlefield characteristics aside, simple logistics make American weapons more expensive than say German or French. Maybe not France, but Germany has good reputation when it comes to power of their weapons.

Here comes a second reason that will complicate Trump's plan, trust. When it comes to buying expensive weapons, one needs to trust they work and fit the purpose. That means both manufacturer and its country need to be reliable. Unfortunately, Trump's threats of withdrawing protection from Europe shattered that trust. Someone further added fuel to fire by speculating if American weapons has kill-switches that would allow the US to disable them at whim. European countries will not want to pay billions for new weapons if Trump can just disable them at whim when they need them most.

Because of that Trump's efforts have misfired. Sure, some Europeans will spend more on defense, but it will be German Rheinmetall and other European manufacturers who will get most contracts.

Of-course some will still place contracts in the US, but these will be few and mostly on weapons that do not have good European alternatives, like Patriot systems. 

Overall Trump needs to up his game if he wants to not just play but also win in this higher league.