Reason for that is that Trump misunderstood both Putin and Zelenski's characters and personality. Thus, he acted in a way that was damaged peace prospect instead of advancing them. That happened because Trumps fundamental assumptions about both Russia and Ukraine are incorrect.
Trump went to appease Russia while talked sternly with Ukraine. That had the opposite effect and instead prolonged war.
What he should have done instead is the opposite: to appease Ukraine and talk sternly with Russia instead. That would have given us peace instead.
Ukraine
Trump assumed that Zelenski and Ukraine are opportunistic and simply want to squeeze as much as they can from the current situation. While it is possible to see Zelenski in such colors, fundamentally that is incorrect. Perceived opportunism of Zelenski is just tactics, he developed when dealing with Biden, that is not how they see this war.
On the ground Ukrainian soldiers and civilians see the war as a war of survival, Europeans agree with that. Russian demands during negotiations in 2022 amount to just that. People who think their continued existence depends on continued fighting, will do what it takes to fight, but will not give up no matter what.
If Zelenski is opportunist, then he would not have offered to resign in exchange for NATO membership. It's an offer from a victim who will do anything to keep its abuser away. Abuser is Russia.
Thus, when Trump told Zelenski he had no card it was perceived as an insult, both by Ukrainians and Europeans. It took light on all the efforts and sacrifices that Ukrainians endured. It's preposterous to talk about cards when survival is at stake. Ukrainians trying not to get slaughtered like people in Bucha massacre and Trump talks about cards.
To win Ukraine over to his peace efforts, Trump should have appealed to core Ukrainian concerns: survival as a sovereign state, not controlled by Russia in any way. Ukrainians cannot trust Russians at all. Russia consistently shown itself to be untrustworthy by breaking many previous commitments and agreements they made in the past. Budapest memorandum, Minsk agreement and many more.
Fundamentally Ukrainians view Russia as an abuser who hurt and abused them over the course of 18th 19th and 20th century. They would rather die with guns in their hands than let the abuser be back to abuse them again.
Thus, Ukraine needs something that will convince them that Russia will not be back to abuse them again. NATO membership is one such thing. Zelenski can agree to peace if he can see that Ukraine is secure and Russia will not invade again. Trump did absolutely nothing to give Ukraine or Europeans any certainty on security. Thus, Zelenski is looking for alternative security solutions and Europeans increase their weapons donations to Ukraine.
Net result is that in Trump's bad treatment of Ukraine ruined American relationships with Europe and Ukraine.
Russia
However, the biggest obstacle to peace is Trump's treatment of Russia. Trump went on to appease Russia. As a result of this appeasement Russia now thinks it can get away with more and they keep inventing more and more demands for a future peace.
If you put all sentimentality aside, there is not any rational reason for Russia to covet any Ukrainian land. All territories that are currently contested have little economic value. This Russian war is pure opportunism. They think it's good if they can grab more land, but it does not matter too much either way.
Russia acts like its security is at threat, but it is a lie. In reality Russia's main reason for this war is not external but internal, it distracts people in Russia from domestic problems and gives government an excuse to repress people by calling it a war measure. Putin wants war to continue because without it he will have to face much tighter scrutiny at home. Thus, he keeps inventing more and more outrageous demands for peace. The moment Trump agrees to this or that, Putin just pulls out more and more demands.
Trump's appeasement to Russia and desire for peace made things worse. Putin is opportunistic by nature and sees Trump's behavior as an opportunity to get himself some concessions at negotiation table. Now the entire Russian's Foreign Affairs department brainstorms ideas for more concessions to extract as well as for more arguments to convince Trump to agree to that. All that delays peace.
Not only it delays peace, but it also does not guarantee to end war in anyway at all. After all Putin can easily break any agreement and he fully intends to do so. Sure, now Putin talks peace to get on Trump's good side and extract concession. However, after a long and tedious peace is agreed on, Putin will simply break sometime after it was signed, blaming Ukraine for alleged violation of terms.
We can use Minsk II agreement as an example. It is so unnecessary long and full of clauses that can be interpreted in many different ways, it essentially impossible to implement at all. If it goes to court, hearing could last years. For all intends and purposes it's not an agreement to end war, it's just a diplomatic football.
If Trump really wanted to end this war, he should have talked to Russia and Putin firmly and decisively. He should put clear incentives to end war and contrast them with clear punishments if Putin refuses. It is Putin who should be told he has no cards and cannot achieve anything on the battlefield.
The only real insensitive Trump has to offer to Putin is lifting of sanctions. As much as Russia can weather the sanctions, they do hurt it. Overtime damage of sanctions will be even higher, so time works against Russia here.
Other than sanctions, there are probably no leverage against Putin. At the same time not all sanctions created equal, some cause real damage that Putin wants removed and others are mere inconvenience he could not care less. It is hard to judge what is more or less damaging as Putin's regime is notoriously opaque.
The real question here is how much Putin will give in return for lifting of the sanctions. He will likely not be willing to return to 1991 borders in exchange for just that, but worth trying. Putin will likely prefer to lift more damaging sanctions in exchange for ceasefire, while keeping territories he annexed even if some other sanctions remain.
In the end lifting some sanctions for permanent ceasefire is likely the only option for peace, if there is any at all.
No comments:
Post a Comment