Yet there are real root causes, and it's all Russian fault. Back after the USSR collapsed there was clarity in the world. Soviet Marxism-Leninist communism failed, Western Liberal Democracy won, and the future of the world will be structured along the Western Liberal Democratic model.
I would like to clarify here that it was not Western plot or some CIA action, that took USSR down. Its own Soviet people went to the streets and said enough is enough, we do not want this communism anymore. Even if Reagan managed to push oil prices down to weaken Soviet economy, it was not the root cause of Soviet collapse, the root cause was the fact that people were fed up with ascetic existence, censorship, constant ques and shortages of consumer goods. Soviet system failed to fix these problems that were non-existent in the west and people choose to abandon communism.
Back when I lived in Russia in 90s, Yeltsin was president and Russia followed the Western path towards future and prosperity. There were some who wished to take country back, but majority was in favor of pro-Western path. Putin even won over Primakov in 2000 elections because he was more pro-Western than the latter. If Yavlinsky or Nemtsov succeeded Yeltsin and Russia continued its path towards the West, it would have joined EU and NATO by now. Quality of life would be similar to Polish or even Czech.
Alas the country went astray. It began jailing dissidents, suppress freedom of speech, assassinate political opponents and more. I left Russia and after a while stopped even following news of what is going on there. Australia and the world have their own local challenges, so I had no time for Russia, not patience to look at Putin's autocratic exercises. I still kept my eye on Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia as they were moving towards the democracy and EU. Seeing their progress filled me with joy. In contrast Russia's ever-increasing autocracy was painful to watch so I ignored it.
I assumed that Russian autocracy was merely a cynical power grab by Putin and his cronies. That it will be temporary, like Franco's rule in Spain and once crafty and cunning Vlad will die, democracy will return. However, that might have been an error.
I heard of Dugin before but never took him too seriously. Crazy radicals are nothing new in Russia, there were people as crazy as Limonov, Barkashov (founder of RNE) and more, they have but a few dedicated equally insane followers but not much more. I assumed Dugin is the same, just another madman who maybe believes in his nonsense, but hardly anyone believes in him. If I had to estimate his followers, I would have said 2% max.
However continued war in Ukraine and ever senile statements from members of Kremlin's regime made me rethink this assessment. If they are indeed truly and without reservations embraced the insane ideas of this madman, then there is nothing in common between me and them anymore.
It's not like Russia does not have liberals who advocate reason, liberty and prosperity: Yabloko, Russia of the Future, Another Russia, PRP-Parnas, Solidarnost all advocated for a better path but were ignored, silenced and murdered. I thought that Putin and his regime silenced them because they are afraid of freedom and democracy that will remove them from power. However, if majority indeed chooses to ignore voices of reason in favor or drivel by a madman Dugin, a madman who will leave them as prey to PRC's imperialist ambitions, then I am not part of their country.
If Dugin is Russia, then I am not a Russian.
In view of all that, war in Ukraine is not a war to resolve differences between "brotherly nations", but a war to decisively break these relationships. European Ukrainians have nothing in common with Duginist Eurasian Russians or Duginist Eurasian-Ukrainians for that matter. Same how European liberal Veishnorian-Russians have nothing in common with Duginist Eurasian-Russians. Ironic how Dugin, who talked about uniting Russian people, ended up splitting them instead.
In view of the above there nothing more to say or argue. New Cold War has descent on the world. War between OECD and Western System on one side and Quadruple Alliance on the other (PRC, Russia, Iran, North Korea). Ukraine will not surrender and will not lose, considering that rate of causalities favors Ukraine, Russia will run out of men far before Ukraine is. Russian victory is impossible. Russia can either keep sending its Eurasian orks into Ukrainian meatgrinder until every single one of them is dead or agree to a ceasefire and a DMZ in Korean style.
The choice is between Second Iron Curtain and a continued slaughter.
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