Russia Should Negotiate with Europe Directly

 

So far Russia have continuously refused to negotiate with Europe, calling them weak and irrelevant. However, reality of situation on the ground is such that only negotiations between Russia and Europe can end this war and Russia will have to talk to Brussels of they will destroy themselves in Ukrainian meatgrinder. 

Russia certainly dislikes Europeans. They fear EU soft power and hate their meddling in what they perceive as Russian backyard. Moscow certainly does not want to talk to Europe and would like to avoid it at all costs. They clearly perceive that these negotiations will not be easy and they will not be able to get as much as say Trump willing to offer them.

However, there is no alternative to negotiations with Europeans. Fundamentally Russian conflict is not with Ukraine or the United States, but with EU. Thus, to end it, they will have to negotiate with Brussels. 

Trump maybe sympathetic to Russian position, but he has little power to actually do anything. Maximum the US can do is pull the financial support for Ukraine. That will not stop the war however as Europeans are more than willing to pay for weapons for Ukraine as well as send them their own. The US is no USSR and could not send its troops to change government in Kyiv or Brussels, that will destroy the very system on which Americans have built their global power. Anything short of that will not stop the war. Americans do need their European allies to help them against China so they will not screw them over.

Marko Rubio made it clear than the US has not stake in this war, he said it's not our war. Americans do not really understand what the war is about, they find the whole affair utterly pointless, but willing to play a mediator in the conflict. Thus, they listen to Russia but that does not mean they are endorsing Russian point of view. Russians erroneously perceive Steve Witkoff as authority to write peace unliterary. In reality he is more of an advocate for Russian cause, with Keith Kellogg being his counterpart for Ukrainian side. Marko Rubio will then try to mediate peace between the positions of these two people and sides they represent, and it will only be accepted if both sides considered it acceptable. It will not be forced on Europe or Ukraine.

Then there is also an option to negotiate with Ukraine but that does not work either. Moscow sees former Soviet states as its subordinates and only able to talk to them in language of ultimatums rather than negotiate with them as equals. Ukraine understands it all too well and will not be willing talk with someone who does not treat them as equal. There is no point in talking to someone who treats anything you say as nonsense and that is how Russia behaves towards Ukraine. The fact that Putin dared to call Zelenski illegitimate puts final nail in the coffin of direct talks. No matter what is agreed, Russia can later dismiss it as null and void as it was signed by a president they do not recognise. Thus, direct talks between Russia and Ukraine are out of question either.

That only leaves Europe. Starmer, Macron and von den Leyen have managed to build trust with Ukrainian leadership and therefore able to represent their interests in a reasonable manner. Russian counterparts are able to see them as equal enough to actually negotiate rather than dictate conditions. They will consult with Ukraine on details to make sure Kyiv is ok with the terms. 

Europeans certainly will not offer Kremlin a deal as good as Witkoff did, but Witkoff's deal is fundamentally an illusion that will never work. It is Europeans Union that needs Ukraine and other post-soviet states as its members, not Americans. Thus, if Kremlin has a problem with that, they will have to take it to Brussels, not Washington DC.

The US has no interests in Kyiv and thus no stake in conflict. Yes, Americans may take greater role in Ukraine and its minerals if peace deal is approved but that is hypothetical future. The present is conflict between Kremlin and Brussels and only these two sides can solve it. The longer Kremlin will continue to deny this reality, the more soldiers it will lose.

Brussels, Starmer and Macron certainly will be hard to deal with, but they are not the worst among those who have stake in this conflict. Poland and most of former Eastern Bloc is also actively participating in this conflict, backing Ukraine above and beyond their Western counterparts. Poland however is not interested in negotiations with Russia. Poland wants Russia partitioned into several small states that will be dominated by Warsaw. Thus, Kremlin may want to negotiate with Brussels a deal that at least preserves Russia in one piece.

Because of the above the fastest way to end war is direct negotiations between Brussels and Kremlin. If Kremin continues to act through Washington, it will make process much longer and ultimately will not make a final peace deal any better for Kremlin than the one they can get from Brussels.