Ukraine should stop clinging to old Soviet era borders and begin shaping not only new frontiers but also new life and future for all post-Soviet space. Ukraine's performance in its war with Russia created a unique opportunity for Ukraine to stop being a small state threatened by its large neighbor and instead become one of the powers who shape geopolitics rather than shaped by them.
However, to achieve it Ukraine has to play its cards right to secure support of key players and then use it to enact the change we all can benefit from. To do that Ukraine should stop thinking in terms and categories of small powers and start thinking big, like a superpower carving the world with other fellow superpowers. However, doing that is not as simple as it sounds. Great powers act and play by their own complex rules and Ukraine has to learn these rules to be able to play the big game in the big league. If it manages to do that, it can become a regional power in charge of Eastern Europe. I will explain the rules after a little bit of context.
Currently many in Ukraine and Europe are puzzled by the fact that Trump seamlessly openly supports Russia and Europeans clearly do not do enough to fight off Russia. Why a democratic power like the US will side with an autocratic Russia that openly shits on everything democratic free world holds dear? That does not make sense.
History does repeats itself and around 200 years ago Nicolas I of Russia was just as puzzled over the fact that UK, France and future Italy sided with Ottoman Empire and now fighting against Russia in Crimea? Was not Turk a great bane of Europe and Christendom that threatened existence of both for several centuries? Did not Ottomans besieged and nearly destroyed Vienna twice, requiring grand Christian coalition to finally be driven away? If so why when Russia went on to finally put an end to this now weakened beast, everyone sided with them over their fellow Christian Russians? Even Austria who suffered from Turk so much tacitly supported the coalition. That seamlessly did not make any sense.
Nonetheless there were reasons. UK recently secured control over Egypt and started building Suez Canal. Sudden collapse of the Ottomans would have put these plans in jeopardy. In fact, a sudden collapse of such a large country will create loss of chaos. New warlords will spring up all around former Ottoman territory, threatening British trade and links with India, Southeast Asia and Australia. Russian plans for Ottomans never accounted for the Suez or shipping problem, that was just too far away from Russian borders for Nicolas I to care about. However, shipping was important for UK and that is why UK said no, and when Nicolas I ignored that, Brits landed in force in Crimea to put an end to Russian adventure with force. France and future Italy tagged along as they too benefitted from trade. Austria stayed out due to close links and alliance with Russia but was broadly against Russian plans. Nicolas, I felt betrayed, just Ukrainians feel betrayed by Trump's actions.
200 years forward to nowadays, much the same situation plays out in modern war in Ukraine. Russia now plays role of dying Ottoman empire (I wrote about it in separate article), Ukraine plays Russian role from 200 years ago and the US plays role of the Brits.
Just like Ottomans were useful for Brits, Russia is also useful for Americans. After all Putin is called this way because he was 'put in' power by people in Washington, just so you know who is the puppet. Russia plays one crucial role for the US: it blocks hungry Chinese dragon from lush pastures of Siberia. Resource starved and overpopulated China could really benefit from seizing all or part of Russian Siberia. That will allow China to become so strong it will easily be able to eclipse the US as preeminent world superpower. That is not something Washington will allow for obvious reasons. They will readily sacrifice other geopolitical issues for this one, keeping China down is Washington's No 1 priority. Ukraine, just like Nicolas I before them, certainly did not thought of it that far, for them Siberia is but far and unimportant. Nonetheless for the US keeping China down is more important that helping the Ukraine. For them if Ukraine falls its no big deal, but if Russia collapses, then its a disaster. That is why they, while not abandoning Ukraine completely as that will look bad publicly, hold Ukraine's hand to make sure Russia does not collapse somehow.
Europe is a lot more cordial towards Ukraine. At the very least they care for Ukraine to not be just absorbed into Russia. For EU Ukraine is needed as potential new EU member as well as barrier against Russia. They do not want Ukrainian government in Kyiv to fall or become a Moscow's puppet. That hold American hand. At the same time Europe does not care if Ukraine returns its occupied territories. If anything, Europe would prefer if Ukraine was smaller, not bigger. Smaller states are easier to integrate and easier to deal with in various European institutions. Eastern parts of Ukraine are both anti-EU and very corrupt. Brussels hates Kernsograd (Kharkiv) about as much Russian chauvinists hate Bandershadt (Lviv). They certainly think Ukraine is better off without it or any other pro-Russian parts. Last thing EU wants is another pro-Russian Yanukovych winning power in Kyiv and tearing down EU agreements. The most certain way of preventing it is removal of pro-Russian parts of the country from the country. When Bismarck advocated small Germany, he had this idea in mind.
So, does that mean there is nothing Ukraine can do? Of course, no. The solution can be pried out of the very same Russian history. Alexander II replayed the same Crimean war against Ottomans, this time achieving many of Russian objectives. He achieved it not through the martial proneness but through clever diplomatic maneuvering. Instead of going guns blazing he cut deals with various powers, promising lands to some, favors for others. Gradually he got most of the key players to his side and only then launched a second war to take from the Ottomans what he had agreed on with his partners. Unlike Nicolas I, Alexander II plan was not a reckless offensive with no regard for consequences, but a carefully planned demolition, where everyone had something to gain and important things were preserved. They agreed to expand and empower, Serbia, Montenegro and Greece while also created a brand-new state, Bulgaria. Austria got Bosnia and Russia itself large area around Kars. UK again interfered, demanding some changes, but that too was negotiated out and most changes stood. Alexander II clearly understood what key players wanted and delivered them just that while at the same time not forgetting to cut himself the biggest piece of that pie and a few secret pieces too while at it.
Ukraine has two key players to placate, US and the EU. Understanding their interests and catering to them is key to Ukraine's success in this war. US interests are simple, keep China out of Siberia, to that end Russia should at the very least survive as a state with functional army and economy, it does not mean it needs the same borders, just that it needs to survive and be a barrier to Chinese expansion. That is why various punitive measures against Russia are not welcomed by the US as that will weaken Russia against Chinese threat. Alternative to that can be in convincing the US to take control of Russian Siberia directly and either annex it into the US or occupy it.
EU is a lot more nuanced but it's the EU's interests that by far hold the greatest potential for Ukraine. EU always coveted Russian lands as future members of the EU. However, with current Kremlin regime Russian ascension to EU looks near impossible. Nonetheless EU likely will be interested in creation of new independent states from parts of Russian territory as these states could then be democratised and integrated into EU. Ukraine can be the spearhead in this process, creating new EU friendly states and in process cultivating and empowering pro-Ukrainian elites there while at it. My proposal for Don Republic in Don River Basin is just that kind of state, it can be like a pilot program to try out the idea. Various problematic areas of Ukraine that will be hard to rid of corruption and pro-Russian sentiment could be divested into this new state. Kharkiv can serve as its capital. If all else fails, it will serve as a useful buffer state between Ukraine and Russia. There is also Suwalki gap and Russian Kaliningrad oblast, that is a clear thorn in EU side.
Finally, the biggest problem to the EU is Alyaksandr Lukashenka who shits on EU values and plagues them with migrants and all sort of other problems while hiding behind Russian back to avoid retaliation. It's almost certain that EU wants Lukashenka gone and Ukraine can easily achieve that. Belarus army is completely defenseless, and public is discontent with his dictatorial rule. With endorsement of the EU and Tsikhanovskaya, Ukraine can easily roll into Minsk and replace the Last Dictator of Europe with a Ukraine friendly government.
Fundamentally Ukraine has the best cards, its Ukrainian troops doing the fighting and thus Ukraine got to be the biggest shaper of Eastern European future. The problem is that Ukraine does not use its cards right, instead of offering solutions that other players can get behind and help to implement, Ukraine insist on returning to status quo of 1991 borders that does not satisfy anyone. Ukraine should think like great power and realise that two friendly puppet states on its borders is more valuable than a few eastern provinces and act accordingly.
Right now, Ukraine needs to stop trying to bring back Crimea and Donbas and instead draft a plan of carving out Russian land and bring it to Europeans for considerations. It will be vise to prob first to see if EU is interested in carving a new state out of Russia or regime change in Belarus. If all goes well, Ukraine will get real assistance, and war will be over in days. Then state building could begin.
Finally, Ukraine will be a lot safer with buffer states separating it from Russia, than with vague and opaque security guarantees that the US might not act on.
Just like that Ukraine can turn the stagnating exhausting war from a quagmire into an opportunity for solutions and greatness, the only requirement that officials in Kyiv should start looking at things outside of the box and they will notice plenty of solutions.
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