Ukraine recently launched an offensive, but it is not going too well. However, analysts still fail to understand what prevents Ukraine from succeeding. The answer is simple even if not obvious.
Once Ukrainian drones destroyed all the Russia's more advanced weapons, Russia simply reverted to a WWI tactics of trenches and mass ground defense. While trenches cannot actually stop drones, from flying over them and do damage to them, drones cannot really damage trenches either.
Thus, we have a paradoxical situation on the battlefield. Ukrainian side can fly their drones all the way even to Moscow and literary blow-up Putin while he literary takes a dumb in the toilet in his office or private residence, making his very own joke from Chechen war era come true in such an ironic fashion. However, Ukraine cannot readily destroy any of the WWI defenses on the frontline and take any territory in Ukraine itself.
Back in 19th century one British analyst described potential war between Russia and UK as battle between elephant and a whale. Elephant is biggest on land and whale is biggest in the ocean. Neither of them can readily reach into the other's domain.
War between Ukraine and Russia is the battle of above-mentioned elephant with an eagle, falcon or a hawk. Elephant cannot reach a falcon who flies in the sky, but neither a falcon can readily do anything about this massive think skinned elephant.
Because of that for an entire year and a half we see elephant repeatedly ramming its head into a tree where falcon nests, hoping to dislodge its nest or at least get on its nerves. Falcon occasionally flies out of its nest to drive elephant away but cannot readily penetrate its think skin to be anything more than annoyance. So, for now, it is a stalemate.
Solutions
However fundamentally Ukraine has an advantage in this fight. On the ground it can hold the line and prevent Russia from advancing. Its drones have uncontested control of the skies.
Thus, there is two strategies Ukraine can use.
Attack City of Moscow Directly
One option that is possible with current armaments is to ignore the ground defenses and attack Moscow directly. Russia currently has nothing to stop such attacks, so Ukraine has free choice of targets.
This of course requires expansion of the scope of warfare to Russian core territory. Some might not like such escalation so some political negotiations and discussions may be necessary with the US and EU.
To make it effective Ukraine should clearly identify key leaders that have authority to order Russian troops back and threaten them with death if they refuse to order such retreat. If they can identify and then kill someone close to Putin personally or Shoigu that will make them think about continuing the war.
Choice of target is important as if they kill someone unimportant like Dugin's daughter or even Dugin himself, then it would not bother Putin or his cronies that much. In fact, they will simply use this as a propaganda tool on their TV.
It has to be someone who actually works in either Presidential Administration, some key ministries such as Defense (Shoigu's ministry) or their relatives.
The drawback of such plan is that Russia could be prepared for that and keep its key leaders protected in some underground bunkers, where drones cannot reach.
Alternative subplan it to target Russia's broadcasting capabilities.
Alternatively, Ukraine can attack their broadcasting capacities: Ostankino and Shabalovka towers and take their propaganda machine offline.
Without ability to frame war the way he wishes it to be framed, Putin will have a hard time maintaining continues support for the war among Russian public and even continues support for his rule in Russia.
The advantage of this version of the plan is that Russian government cannot readily hide or protect its huge broadcasting towers. Without them a lot of people will not be able to tune it for their usual dose of entertainment mixed with government propaganda. Then people will start noticing alternative points of view as well as reality around them.
This can force Putin to negotiate or withdraw, but it can also force him to do something even more risky.
It is possible to destroy just Shabalovka tower first to see how he will react. Then threaten to take down Ostankino as well if he will not back down.
Propaganda is important to Putin so that will surely make an impact.
Use WWII weapons to destroy WWI era defenses.
However, if war necessarily has to be kept in Ukraine's own territory, then they Ukraine needs some weapons that can effectively destroy WWI era defenses.
Modern US military has surprisingly little of them left in service. Nowadays the US can rely on Air Force's air superiority doctrine to win. Once air superiority is established, targeted attacks against key installations of the opponents are often enough to disable their ability to resist any further. Mostly by threatening them into surrender.
However, against such deeply digged-in country that relies on underground bunkers, secrecy and disguise to keep key personnel safe, while simply keeping general population and even frontline soldiers unprotected and exposed to death.
Russian defenses in Ukraine are cheap WWI style and easy to destroy. However, they are simply too numerous to Hellfire armed Bayraktar and other such smart weapons.
Tanks and IFV can cross trenches, but anti-personel and anti-vehicle minefields in front of these trenches do stop them.
Thus, a weapon that can make massive indiscriminate attacks into general direction of the enemy is needed.
Simply carpet-bombing Russian defense lines can be one such solutions. Even a simple WWII bomber plane can possibly do it.
Alternative solutions it to use mass rocket artillery that Russia itself loves to use so much. The US used to have a few of such weapons, for example this one:
M16 (rocket). However nowadays the US does not have that kind of weapon.
The closest thing would probably be
Hydra, but that too is designed to be fired from air.
Ukraine often asks for more HiMARS as that is the closest thing they can find in the US arsenal, but HiMARS is way too selective in its firing capacities. It cannot deliver loads of cheap destructive firepower that is needed to destroy Russian defenses cost-efficiently.
Something simple and primitive is needed for a job.
Alternative Subplan it to convince bulk of Russian forces to surrender.
To keep soldiers on the frontline, Russian command tells their soldiers that if they retreat, their own country will kill them for disobeying orders to hold the line. They also tell them if they surrender to Ukraine, they will instead be killed by mythological Ukraine's Nazis. This myth of Ukraine Nazis is essential to keep many of Russian troops on the front lines and preventing them from surrendering or defecting to Ukraine.
Because of the above it is theoretically it is possible to encourage many Russian soldiers to surrender to Ukraine, if Ukraine can successfully promise them safety. Here is is pointless to appeal to morale as this does not drive Russian army at all. Also, a promise of safety has to be somehow believable as they might not trust it easily, believing that Nazis are real and plan to exterminate them.
Perhaps a promise that they will be transferred to a western country, such as Germany can help.
More battle capable units such are VDV or gvardia (gvardeyskaya divison) will probably not surrender, but more ordinary units will be willing to do so.
Also, it is essential to talk to privates directly and not to sergeants or higher ranks. The higher their rank in the Russian military, the less likely they are to surrender.
That is how Russian military works. They simply push all the actual work down to lowest most ranks, such as private and possibly efreytor. With sergeants and higher ranks only serve as enforcers and supervisors.
Privates of course resent this system. Some of them even gun down the sergeants Columbine Style, just to be court martialed and sentenced to death themselves afterwards. However most prefer to keep their lives in hope to exit the military eventually, or to be promoted to a sergeant and become an abuser themselves.
Offering these guys, a safe way out of this mess will surely make many of them take the offer. However, it is also important to give them way out in such a way, that sergeants and other higher ranks would not be able to stop them.
