One cannot understand Russia with their mind
Or measure it in commonly agreed yards
She (Russia) has unique constitution
One can only believe in Russia
Being very calm and rational person, I could not find a single reason to like Russia or live there. I left and do not look back.
However, there are people who actually like Russia, both inside and even outside of its borders. Back in the days I could not understand why anyone would like Russia. Now I think that the more emotional and irrational people are, the more likely they are to like Russia.
For rational people who think with their mind, Russia is a horrible place to live or be. For emotional person however there are plenty of reasons to love or believe in Russia. They are all dumb and irrational reasons, but reasons, nonetheless.
For example, Dugin's own "Russia is great, special unique center of Eurasian civilization and culture." brings laugh from rational people who know better but fills an emotional person with pride for their country.
There is another one: "Russia (USSR) saved the world from Nazis and prevented genocide of people of Europe". Truth is that Nazis only planned to genocide Jews and did not plan to exterminate say Hungarians or Ukrainians. There is also the fact that USSR basically enslaved entire Eastern Europe by installing communist governments against their will after the war and exploited them.
However, just like some "BLM Woke person's feelings do not care for your facts", feelings of die-hard (red) Russian patriot do not care for historical accuracy. They will shout something like "we saved them from genocide, and now they shit in our direction" in enraged stupor and refuse to listen to any arguments to the contrary you will bring them.
That is how emotional Russian majority is like.
Taking the above into consideration, Russian war in Ukraine is not about any rational objectives. No matter how you look at it rationally there is no reason to suffer severe international sanctions and waste countless lives and equipment to conquer and annex several unproductive regions of Ukraine that are constant drain on Kyiv's budget.
That is if you think rationally. For an emotional die-hard patriot however it's not about making sense, it's about "showing 'the West' that Russia is superpower", "liberating Ukraine from Nazis" and other such fictitious things. There are no Nazis in Ukraine, but there is no point of telling that to a die-hard patriot as they will refuse to look at any facts anyway.
A somewhat rational Putin too is victim and hostage of the emotional country he is in charge of. He cannot simply hurt patriots' feelings and tell them the truth. During Yeltsin's times emotional patriots never stopped waving red soviet flags and yell "Yeltsin's gang to prison". Rationally speaking 90s were not bad times, just patriots lost their emotional reasons to be proud of Russia and annoyed everyone ever since. Putin won many of these patriots over to his side with some jingoistic rhetoric and occasional small war.
However, patriots' appetites grew ever stronger and now require even bigger sacrifices to the altar of "Russia's greatness". Before 5 days war over misunderstanding in Georgia could do it. Now a lengthy meatgrinder is needed.
Thus, Russian aims are not something rational but something completely emotional. In 2014 Putin annexed Crimea because it has symbolic meaning to Russian patriots. Much like say Medinah for Muslims, Crimea and Sevastopol are part of WW II cult created by Stalin and communists: "hero city" and "homeport/birthplace of Russian navy".
Thus, just like in the first war, something symbolic like Crimea or Sevastopol is what Putin wants now. As I outlined in my previous articles, it's likely Sloviansk in Donetsk oblast. Grikin used it as his HQ during the first war and now Putin wants to sell its "liberation" to public as Russian triumph.
At the same time real war aims could be something immaterial altogether, something like Helsinki Accords, a bunch of dubious legal mumbo-jumbos that would say "Russia won" and "commit Ukraine to 'denazify'" without any actual commitment.
I do not think it would matter for Russia if any of the provisions will be implemented or not. In fact, Putin might even prefer that NATO would eventually violate the treaty. That could give more fuel for pro-Putin propaganda. Patriots want to believe that "George HW Bush promised Gorbachev that NATO will not expand east into former Warsaw Pact, but then Americans reneged on these promises" - in truth Bush did not promise that. Possibly promising that Ukraine will not be in NATO and then taking them in anyway will do for Putin as well. Another tearjerking story about "Western betrayal" of "honest" Russia is something Russian TV thrives on.
On the other hand, any real legal concession to Russia is unacceptable. If they actually want to turn Ukraine into second Belarus, run by a Moscow puppet, then it will endanger lives of 40 million Ukrainians. Russia is purposefully and deliberately unjust and lawless country that gives shelter to tyrants, thieves and murderers and kills honest people like Alexey Navalny or Boris Nemtsov. It's better to die with a gun in hand than in custody of this Evil Empire.
Because of that before "Accord" solution is proposed it should be verified that Russia does not intend to follow through on implementation of these "accords". Finally, they can also write a completely different texts in Russian, Ukrainian and English and conclude that to each side version of their own language is binding.
Generally, I think that signing a fake deal, deliberately intending to violate it, is possibly the most workable solution for the West and Ukraine. Promise to stop aid but actually keep sending weapons. Promise to not place NATO troops but send them as, volunteers or PMC. Promise to not invite Ukraine in NATO but extend coverage of Article 5 to Ukraine. Promise to denazify but use it to ban pro-Russian politicians like Tsarev and symbols like Sickle and Hammer. Let Russia whine.
No comments:
Post a Comment