Why Russia Will Not Use Nukes

 

After my previous article about emotional nature of Russian reasons to wage war in Ukraine, some may wonder if Russia will go as far as resort to nukes. The answer to that is 99% negative. Putin may bluff about nukes but actually using them is a step too far for him. The reasons are multiple.

While some might argue that he already calls Ukrainians Nazis and now it's only a matter of time before he will start destroying them with all his might. To answer that I want to clarify this "Nazis in Ukraine" ideology. 

Putin does not say that every Ukrainian is a Nazi, far from it, his ideology instead portrays average Ukrainian as a "victim of a Nazi coup". According to Putin's propaganda during Euromaidan a small group of Nazis took power in Kyiv and now rules Ukraine against the will of its people. Based on this first lie, Putin later build his entire "special military operation" as "liberation of Ukrainian people from the Nazis in charge". 

Such benevolent facade allows him to maintain goodwill of Russian public and support for war. However, it also puts constrains on what he can do and use nukes is one of them. If he is trying to help people of Ukraine, why would he nuke them. Why can't them simply remove these few Nazis from power and return power to "legitimate government"? These uncomfortable questions is not something Putin wants to answer to. For him it is much more expedient to throw cannon fodder at problem as that will not require any further explanation.

Another issue the fact that Russian patriots view Ukraine as part of Russia. Thus, using nukes against Russian own territory would be seen as unreasonable destruction of Russia's own land and people. That too would require a lot of justification.

There is also an international outcry to consider. Sure, Russia so far holds against sanctions, but use of nukes likely to make things even worse and for a long time.

If Russia cannot defeat even Ukraine without use of nukes, then it will make Russia look weak, both internally and externally.

Finally, there is the fact that Putin war fundamentally aims to keep people of Russia in carefree slumber about reality around them. In that context nuclear explosion will likely work as a wakeup call to all these hooked up on Putin's propaganda masses. It's no longer fun and games if nuclear option was used. Putin wants to keep population numb, not alert.

Reason Putin calls the war "special military operation" is to downplay its seriousness and severity. There nothing he can do to downplay usage of nuclear weapons. No one will believe in use of "recreational McNukes" by some rich oligarch. In the beginning of the war, Russians did explore the option of somehow use nukes but frame it as if Ukrainians did it and not Russians, but nothing came out of it.

There is still an off chance that Putin manage to come up with some plausible enough narrative that could allow him to use nukes without taking responsibility for it, but that is very unlikely.

One thing for sure is that Putin will not want to be responsible for causing a nuclear disaster. Benefits of victory over Ukraine are not as significant for him as drawbacks from escalating the war and causing nuclear holocaust.