Thursday, August 14, 2025

Peace Talks of Korean War and Ukrainian War

 

As we know ever since Donald Trump became a president, he was relentlessly pushing towards a peace deal with Russia to end War in Ukraine. These efforts do face a level of pushback from Ukraine and Europe who insist that talking to Russia is pointless. At the same time Russia keeps reiterating its maximalist demands and present itself as a winner. In the end talks are held, agreement not reached due to unreasonability of Russian demands and war continues. The whole charade repeats itself every so often. Recently we once again witness another installment of the same drama.

In Indy Nydell's series about Korea War I managed to find an interesting parallel with these recent efforts to end War in Ukraine. I linked one video here, but the whole negotiations have dragged out over several weeks and covered in several videos starting from the one I have listed. 

75 years on, different nations with vastly different cultures, but much the same actions. Back then Truman administration was insisted on finding peace in Korea and instructed personnel on the ground to participate in peace talks. Matt Ridgeway, commander of the American and other UN troops on the ground insisting that talks are pointless as Chinese do not want peace and will simply use the talks to gain advantage over them and make it look like their victory. Meanwhile North Korea and China did all they could to present these peace talks as a capitulation for the West and victory for China and North Korea.

First Korean Talks in 1951 ended up in no agreement singed and fighting resumed. However eventually Ceasefire was signed two years later. It followed the control line on the ground and not the 38th parallel. 

During the talks in 1951, most of the talks were over the issue of border, where once again North Korea, just like Russia now insisted on militarily indefensible 38 Parallel while UN negotiators insisted that this is impossible as they are much further north of this line and in more defensible positions they will not abandon. Just like China and North Korea Russia now insists its won and squeezed plenty of propaganda out of the event. On their part, American representatives to the talks were often commented on how reprehensible was behavior of their enemies negotiators and how utterly pointless it is to keep talking to them instead of fighting them.

Nonetheless Truman administration, just like Trump's administration now, had political reasons if not find peace then at least attempt to. Then, just like now, they needed to look like they tried to reach peace and offered their enemies deal as reasonable as practically possible. 

It was expedient that Chinese has to be the one to reject the deal, not the UN negotiators. That way Truman could say they did anything they reasonably could to achieve peace, but the enemy will just not accept any offer they made. Someone tolerant to communist BS was needed at the negotiations table precisely to achieve that. They had to listen for hours for various wild claims or demands communists would make without getting angry or walking away. Then just reiterate the UN conditions for ceasefire and say that further negotiations can happen later.

We are not in much similar situation. Trump wants to look like he is doing anything possible withing reasonable to achieve peace. Zelenski has to fulfil the Turner Joy's unenviable task of listening at infinite to Russian wild claims about Ukraine and then just reiterate the same ceasefire conditions as before. They have to keep doing it until Russians just give up and walk away, that way Trump could claim he did all he could but Putin just would not accept it.

Russians, just like Chinese back then, used negotiations for their own propaganda reasons, acting like they have won and UN is surrendering. They push for unreasonable demands, expecting them to be given to them. When faced with polite but stubborn rejection they get puzzled and struggle to say anything else. In later stages of negotiations, Chinese and North Koreans just sit there for hours saying nothing at all. They were cornered and could not find any more arguments, but refused to just accept UN offer. The resulting silence was pressing and taxing. I wonder if we will see Putin or Lavrov in much the same position.

In the end UN position won in Korea. I would expect the Ukrainian proposals to prevail in the end.

No comments:

Post a Comment

May be War in Ukraine isn't Really About Ukraine

Recently I watched press conference after the latest US-Russia talks in Anchorage Alaska. World expected a breakthrough on the issue of Ukra...