Recently I watched press conference after the latest US-Russia talks in Anchorage Alaska. World expected a breakthrough on the issue of Ukraine. Instead, the two leaders praised each other, talked about Bering Strait, Monuments of WWII and even time zones. They ended by promising to meet again. Trump only briefly mentioned that deal in Ukraine was not reached.
Watching that made me think if conference or even War in Ukraine itself was about Ukraine.
When it comes to Ukraine it's no surprise they make it about themselves and about global principles, bombs do fall on their heads and cities after all. However here they have full support of European Union (and UK), that has vested interests in making sure that Ukraine goes through reform process and then joins the EU and they do not want Putin to deny them that, making all their efforts wasted. US does not have particular stake in this war but helps out to keep NATO together. Because of that joint EU and Ukraine chorus dominates global perception of war. Occasionally paid by Russia symphonizes of dictatorship parrot official Russian arguments, but they are too nonsensical to be taken seriously.
Under such circumstances it is not hard to get into tunnel vision and overlooks other things that may be going around at the same time with war in Ukraine. Real reasons for war could be in these actions and Ukraine is merely a distraction.
Arguments that Putin finally decided to go full imperialism and will suffer huge sanctions over the issue of government in Kyiv or a few territories on Russia-Ukraine border always sat poorly with me. Patriots and Jingoists in Russia is like Putin's favorite dog. They wave their tail at the government, menacingly bark at the West, bite local pro-democracy liberals on the butt and do other dog tricks. For all that work they got pat on the head from the powerful, an extra-large bowl of bones and then sent to their doghouse to gnaw on them. See how it works with actual dog here. Dugin and other scare personalities do fulfill the same role as this dog. Such is their ignoble human-dog role in Putin's system.
Similar jingoistic personalities in EU often get kick in the butt instead, called "bad dog" and then sent to the dark corner without any food where they whimper out of hunger and cold.
However actual policy it not a matter for their canine brains. That is what Putin with his few close advisers decide on their own. Russian government structured in such a way that even people as senior as Minister of Foreign Affairs or even Prime Minister might not know the full picture of Putin's plans or reasons. That is why I always questioned the officially voiced reasons for war. Putin is just not the kind of person to do something like that over some jingoist reason.
Most logical reason for Putin's war in Ukraine seemed domestic issues. Navalny managed to galvanise opposition to Putin's rule and to diffuse it, Putin started the war. Russian people's mentality is such, that they will not question leader in the midst of pandemonium of war. Watch CGPGrey video about how to be a pirate, to get an example of how that works. With a system like that you do not need to have a galactic brain to figure out you can prolong you rule (captainship) indefinitely if battle will never end. If that the case it is not really about Ukraine, Ukraine was just unfortunate enough to get caught up in that mess.
However, what if it's even less about Ukraine and is about something altogether different. Putin likes to talk about unspecified "root causes" and refuses to talk to either Zelenski or Europeans. Pundits tend to interpret mysterious "root causes" as alleged Putin's believe that Ukraine is part of Russia, but there is no guarantee it is. As for his unwillingness to talk to Zelenski or Europeans. it could be due to his desire to project himself as equal only to the US and cast Ukraine and Europe as something irrelevant and beneath his attention, but it can also be due to the fact that real issue is about something only US is aware of.However, it could also be that real dispute is about something only US and Putin know about, and Putin only uses Ukraine as a leverage to get something in completely unrelated field. Trump said something about diving up land, but what land does he mean. I might as well be land on Mars or Moon, that he intends to divide with Russia, kind of like Spain and Portugal once divided New World in the Treaty of Tordesillas. It could be about Arctics, Antarctica, continental shelf, anything really.
Regardless of what it is both sides intend to keep it secret from the rest of the world. Otherwise, EU. UK, China and many more will start claiming pieces of Mars for themselves and both US and Russia has vested interest to keep all of them out. That is why Trump and Putin were all so happy and shining about their negotiations, praising mutual cooperation and neighborship.
If its indeed about Mars I do wonder how long it will take, before the whole story will unfold completely. By the time global community will realise what is going on, the two might colonise the entire red planet. Sure, in modern are of internet information spreads quickly but is it really if both sides intend to keep it secret?
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