On Western Sahara

 

After finishing my previous article on bi-ethnic states I decided that to illustrate my point better I need an example of a real-life situation. So, I will write about Western Sahara, most of which are currently occupied and gradually settled by Morocco, with Polisario Front controls but a small sliver on the edge but claims the whole area. The world is divided between recognising Moroccan claim or demanding that Morocco decolonise Western Sahara and cede it to Polisario Front. Morocco recently gained ground with international recognition of their claims and now offers Polisario an autonomy deal in exchange for abandonment of sovereignty.

The best course of action for Polisario is to neither accept Moroccan deal, nor demand return of the territories Morocco already settled. Polisario should instead focus on securing sovereignty in its current borders and possibly procuring more land from the other side of West Sahara's border, in Mauritania.

To being with a simple part. Do not accept deal with Morocco. This is what many will agree with. Most will bring arguments like decolonisation and the like. I will instead quote my ideas from my article about bi-national states. Under Moroccan rule Sahrawi will always be treated like second class citizens. Sure, they can write nice words about equality and promise fair treatment, especially in front of foreign observers, but in reality, Moroccan government will always care for their own first. So, when observers will leave, thinking problem solved, Moroccans will show their true colours. Any dispute between Moroccan settlers and Sahrawis will always be decided in favour of settlers. Sahrawis will be sidelined from any role of importance, and their existence will depend on their usefulness to Moroccan majority and government. Moroccans would even be able to completely exterminate Sahrawis, citing anti-terrorist measures and the like/. That would be infinitely worse compared to current situation where Sahrawis have at least full control in part of West Sahara where they can put their own people first.

Now the second part, settle on current de-facto border and renounce claims on parts of Western Sahara already settled by Moroccans. That sound counter intuitive. Why give up land? Or claim on it. Here is why. Imagine a scenario where Polisario indeed gets control of whole Western Sahara, courtesy of global community. They may be got their land back, but it's now settled by Moroccans who will be entitled to stay. By now Moroccan settlers clearly outnumber the Sahrawis in whole of Western Sahara so in a democratic system a Moroccan settler interests party would easily be able to win elections. It may not have Moroccan in its name, but its real loyalties will clearly be with settlers. Such a party will then govern Western Sahara for the benefit of settlers and to the detriment of the Sahrawis. It will be like in Belarus where dictator, who represents interests of Russophone settlers, suppresses native Belarussians as well as their language and culture. International community may support Polisario sovereignty over whole Western Sahara, but they will certainly not support any undemocratic measures like disenfranchising Moroccan settlers from voting or dictatorial rule of minority like that of Bashar Assad in Syria. In addition to that if Moroccan settlers feel they are mistreated they may ask for Moroccan state to interfere on their behalf, prompting Morocco to invade and occupy Western Sahara. In an event of an invasion Sahrawis will have no one to rely on to come their aid. Whatever rule will emerge from that occupation with certainly be to benefit of Moroccan settlers and to detriment of Sahrawis.

That leaves us with the last option, sovereignty within current de-facto borders. Yes, these borders are hideous, but they are the only ones that can give Sahrawis a state of their own, that they will actually be able to keep. It was too generous to give not so numerous Sahrawis whole of Western Sahara, equal in size to Morocco that has almost hundred times the population. This careless mistake led towards Moroccan occupation and current conflict.

There is however one card Sahrawis can play and that is to trade recognition of current de-facto borders with Morocco as de-jure ones in exchange for not necessarily equivalent land from neighboring Mauretania. Some Sahrawis actually live in Mauretania so taking land from it will help Sahrawis to reunite their people into a single state. Mauretania has a lot of land but not so many people, it will not be able to resist Morocco easily. Mauretania capital and most population is in the south, so they will not be too inconvenienced with losing land in the north, along Moroccan border. They probably will not give it up for free but a combination of threats and insensitive might do it. Morocco can certainly defeat Mauretania, but it can also offer them money or some other assistance in exchange for the deal.

That of course raises a question: why would Morocco bother with Mauretania over Sahrawis would. The answer is diplomatic advantage. Morocco does not have its claims on Western Sahara recognised and that potentially puts their settlers there at risk if global community suddenly turns against them on Western Sahara question. There are actors like Iran and China that might want to use it to their advantage one day and that would put Moroccan control over Western Sahara in jeopardy. Thus, cutting a deal with Polisario that will secure recognition of current de-facto border will secure this land for Morocco and prevent any further claims to it. Morocco will stop being accused of holding the last uncolonized land in the world, blamed for poor treatment of Sahrawis and such, its diplomatic standing in the world will improve. Finally giving land to Sahrawis might turn current enemies into allies. To prevent Mauretania from reclaiming lost land, Sahrawis will have to align themselves to Morocco or at least maintain friendly relationship with Rabat. Bitter enemies who currently claim about half of Moroccan territory, will become friendly buffer state and improve Moroccan political and diplomatic standing globally.

Just like that an out of the box thinking can fix the world and make it a better place for everyone.