After Trump's recent pivot towards Russia and Russian conditional acceptance of negotiations "to end war" some people might get false impression that Russia wants to end the war and Ukraine stubbornly refuses.
Zelenski responded to Russian recent that engagement with Trump by saying that Putin is proven liar, and Russia does not really want peace. Here I will explain what it means.
True that Russia agreed to negotiations, however Russia does not plan to negotiate in good faith. Russia wants negotiations because their military could not destroy Ukraine so now, they want to try and destroy it with words and cunning tricks.
Russian negotiators are cunning and experienced. They are skilled at using fallacies and other dirty tricks to win on negotiations table what their soldiers could not win on the ground. Engaging them carelessly is harmful to one's wellbeing. Their poisonous words can destroy.
I will explain how it works on the example:
Recently in their negotiations with Trump they proposed the following formula, first is ceasefire, followed by election in Ukraine and then actual negotiations for peace terms. At first that sound like a peace deal, however if you look closer it is just a fallacy aimed at distracting Ukraine while buying Russia time to regroup and strengthen their war effort.
First of all, that final line: negotiates peace term. Russia clearly sees ceasefire as temporary and wants table its real demands after the elections in Ukraine. What these real demands are is anyone's guess. They could amount to literal capitulation and Refusal to sign it will be interpreted by Russia as legitimate reason to restart war. The whole effort of holding election and doing other things will be for nothing.
Second. Holding elections takes a lot of time and effort. In peacetime it is a necessary for a functioning democracy. In war time however it can be a deadly distraction from a war effort. Time Zelenski spends campaigning is time he does not spend fighting war. That disrupts command and control and puts war effort in jeopardy. Zelenski has no time to spare campaigning. Electoral campaign will distract common soldiers too, instead of being united for the country they will ponder virtues of different candidates, differences in opinion could jeopardize unity of military units. Because of all these reasons holding elections during war time is dangerous and can hand over victory to the opponent. Russia knows that and that is why it wants Ukraine to hold elections.
Russian own martial law, that Putin did not activate because he does not consider events in Ukraine war (he calls it "special military operation"), also postponed elections in time of war. Internationally UK did suspended elections during WWII until after Victory in Europe, so Ukraine's postponement of elections is nothing undemocratic.
Even if Ukraine hold an election there is no guarantee that Russia will recognize the results and agree to negotiate with the winner. Russia already declared Zelenski illegitimate. Despite disputed over his ratings he will likely win again. People in Ukraine are divided between 5 to 7 candidates with each at around 15% rating. Among them Zelenski is still in the lead. If election held and Zelenski wins there is a good chance that Russia will again call him illegitimate and refuse to negotiate.
Even if Zelenski will not win, popular alternative candidates are all supportive of war effort. There is no chance that Russia friendly politician will emerge as victor and will agree to Russian demands. Fundamentally no matter who wins Russia will not recognize results and it will be for nothing. The whole trouble will be for nothing. However, change in government will disrupt chain of command and it will give Russia advantage on the battlefield.
Since Russia will near certainly refuse to recognize results of Ukrainian election, their whole proposal is nothing more than a ruse to make themselves look like doves and cast Zelenski as warmonger. EU and the US should be wiser and see through Russian lies.
If by off chance Russia is genuine about these peace efforts, then they should prove it so that EU and Ukraine could trust them.
Fundamentally there is nothing to negotiate about this war. Line of control is a de-facto border. After 3 years of war, it is so fortified that any offensive operations are near impossible. Accept that and stop fighting or do not accept and keep fighting. There are not any negotiable terms that are acceptable to either party. There will be no surrender of any land just because some piece of paper says so. There will be no obligations on Kyiv government. Nothing to discuss.
If Russia wants peace if can just stop fighting. Since Russia does not do that, it means it wants war.
